#351 overall · ARI · 166.8 projected half-PPR pts · -81.0 Draft Value
Jacoby Brissett — 2026 Fantasy Outlook
The case for drafting him
The case is thin, and that is the honest starting point. Brissett's 2025 season was the clearest evidence of what he can do with a full workload: 3,366 passing yards, 23 passing touchdowns, 1 rushing touchdown, and 168 rushing yards on 38 attempts. That is a legitimate starter's stat line, and it is the foundation the projection is built on. The three-year averages tell a more complicated story, 1,472 passing yards and 9.3 passing touchdowns per season, because the 2023 and 2024 samples were limited. A drafter who believes 2025 is the true signal, not the noise, has a coherent argument for rostering him in deep leagues or as a late-season handcuff.
What the model projects
The projection is 166.8 half-PPR fantasy points. Brissett ranks QB30 and #319 overall, placing him in Tier 9. His draft value is -87.1, meaning the projection sits below replacement level at the quarterback position in a 12-team half-PPR format. The point estimate reflects the full three-year record, including the limited 2023 and 2024 samples alongside the fuller 2025 season. Arizona's Week 14 bye is worth noting for roster management purposes.
| Att | Comp | Pass yds | Pass TD | INT | Car | Rush yds | Rush TD | Fum | Half-PPR | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2023 | 23 | 18 | 224 | 3 | — | 3 | 19 | — | — | 22.9 |
| 2024 | 161 | 95 | 826 | 2 | 1 | 15 | 62 | — | 4 | 44.2 |
| 2025 | 485 | 315 | 3366 | 23 | 8 | 38 | 168 | 1 | 5 | 233.4 |
| 3-yr avg | 223 | 142.7 | 1472 | 9.3 | 3 | 18.7 | 83 | 0.3 | 3 | 103.2 |
The range of outcomes
The outcome band is wide. The median simulated season lands at 137.3 points, which is notably below the 166.8 point estimate, a signal of how much variance sits in this profile. The bottom tenth percentile of simulated seasons produces just 43.1 points. The 25th percentile reaches 91.8. At the optimistic end, the 75th percentile is 213.4 points and the top tenth percentile climbs to 279.0. That upper band is meaningful: a season near 279.0 points would represent genuine fantasy utility. The distance between the 10th and 90th percentile outcomes, 43.1 to 279.0, is among the widest spreads a drafter will encounter at the position, reflecting genuine uncertainty about how much of the 2025 workload carries forward.
(bottom 10%)
(median)
(top 10%)
our projection
How to draft him
Brissett is not being drafted consistently enough across platforms to carry a market ADP, so there is no pick cost to plan around. In practice, that means he is available as a free addition in most drafts. The appropriate use case is as a late-roster quarterback in a two-QB or superflex league, or as a deep handcuff in a single-QB format. His negative draft value means the projection does not support spending a meaningful pick on him in standard 12-team half-PPR competition. If the 2025 workload repeats, the upside is real; if it does not, the downside extends to near-zero fantasy relevance, as the band makes clear.
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Questions drafters ask
The projection of 166.8 points and a draft value of -87.1 place him below replacement level at quarterback in that format. He ranks QB30 and #319 overall in Tier 9. He is not a player the model supports spending a pick on in standard competition.
He completed 315 of 485 pass attempts for 3,366 yards and 23 touchdowns against 8 interceptions, added 168 rushing yards and 1 rushing touchdown on 38 attempts, and fumbled 5 times, losing 4. It was by far his most productive season in the three-year record.
Very wide. The 10th percentile simulated season is 43.1 points and the 90th percentile is 279.0 points, with a median of 137.3. The gap between the floor and ceiling reflects genuine uncertainty about his role and workload.
Arizona is on bye in Week 14, which is relevant for roster planning if he is being carried as a streamer or handcuff deep into the season.
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Beyond the rankings
This page ranks the players. Nobody has ranked the people in your league.
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Names invented. Most long-running leagues have a table like this.