#346 overall · MIA · 85.3 projected half-PPR pts · -80.6 Draft Value
Riley Patterson — 2026 Fantasy Outlook
The case for drafting him
Patterson's best season on record is 2025: 27 field goals on 29 attempts, 2 misses, 34 extra points on 35 attempts, and 14 attempts from 40 yards or beyond. That accuracy rate and volume profile represent a meaningful step up from his 2023 work (16-of-18, 41 extra points) and a sharp contrast to a thin 2024 (4-of-7, 16 extra points). The 2025 campaign is the version of Patterson that makes him worth a late look in deeper kicker formats. He is now in Miami, a warm-weather dome-adjacent environment that historically supports kicker consistency, and his three-year average of 15.7 field goals on 18 attempts per season shows he can be accurate when given the volume.
What the model projects
The projection is 85.3 half-PPR fantasy points. His draft value is -91.7, placing him K31 and #334 overall in Tier 9. Those numbers reflect where kickers sit in the value hierarchy relative to other positions: even a productive kicker carries a negative draft value in a 12-team half-PPR format. The 85.3 projection is the headline number to hold onto; it represents the model's single point estimate for his season output.
| FG | FGM | XP | Half-PPR | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2023 | 16 | 2 | 41 | 91.0 |
| 2024 | 4 | 3 | 16 | 27.0 |
| 2025 | 27 | 2 | 34 | 130.0 |
| 3-yr avg | 15.7 | 2.3 | 30.3 | 28.0 |
The range of outcomes
The outcome band is wide, which is typical for the position. The p10 is 0.0 points, meaning the bottom 10% of simulated seasons produces essentially nothing. The p25 is 8.1 points. The median simulated season (p50) lands at 61.7 points, well below the 85.3 projection, which signals that the distribution is skewed by high-end outcomes. The p75 is 116.6 and the p90 reaches 148.9. That upper range reflects what a full-season, high-volume Patterson looks like; the lower range reflects how quickly kicker value evaporates when opportunity dries up. His 2024 line (4-of-7, 16 extra points) is a concrete example of what the low end of this band looks like in practice.
(bottom 10%)
(median)
(top 10%)
our projection
How to draft him
Patterson has no market ADP across the platforms tracked, which means he is not being consistently drafted in public 2026 leagues. In most snake drafts he will be available undrafted or as a free-agent pickup. If you are in a league that starts a kicker and you want to target him, there is no pick cost to plan around. His bye is Week 6, so factor that into your roster management if you do add him. The 2025 accuracy and volume are the facts in his favor; the 2024 line is the reminder that the floor here is real.
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Questions drafters ask
His projection is 85.3 half-PPR points and he carries no market ADP, meaning he is not being consistently drafted in public leagues. He is a free-agent-level asset in most formats, so there is no draft capital required to roster him.
In 2025 he made 27 of 29 field goal attempts with 2 misses and converted 34 of 35 extra points. In 2023 he was 16-of-18 with 41 extra points. His three-year average is 15.7 made field goals on 18 attempts per season with 2.3 misses.
The simulated season band runs from 0.0 points at the p10 to 148.9 at the p90, with a median of 61.7. The spread reflects the high variance inherent to the kicker position, where volume and opportunity can shift dramatically from season to season.
His bye is Week 6, which is on the earlier side of the schedule. If you roster him, plan to have a streaming option available for that week.
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Beyond the rankings
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