#180 overall · HOU · 74.3 projected half-PPR pts · -41.0 Draft Value
Tank Dell — 2026 Fantasy Outlook
The case for drafting him
Tank Dell has been a consistent target-getter in Houston's offense across the seasons on record. In 2023 he pulled in 47 receptions on 75 targets for 709 yards and 7 touchdowns. In 2024 he matched that target volume almost exactly, seeing 81 looks and converting 51 of them for 667 yards. The three-year averages tell the same story: roughly 78 targets, 49 receptions, and 688 receiving yards per season, with a small rushing role layered on top (about 10 carries and 47 yards per year). The target floor is real. For a drafter willing to roster a late-depth receiver, that kind of consistent volume is the argument.
What the model projects
The projection is 56.7 half-PPR fantasy points for the season. That sits below the replacement-level threshold for wide receivers in a 12-team half-PPR format: the draft value is -71.5, placing Dell at WR89 and #268 overall in Tier 9. These numbers reflect where the model lands on his season-long contribution, not a commentary on his talent ceiling.
| Tgt | Rec | Rec yds | Rec TD | Car | Rush yds | Half-PPR | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2023 | 75 | 47 | 709 | 7 | 11 | 51 | 141.5 |
| 2024 | 81 | 51 | 667 | 3 | 9 | 43 | 114.5 |
| 3-yr avg | 78 | 49 | 688 | 5 | 10 | 47 | 128.0 |
The range of outcomes
The simulated season band is wide. At the 10th percentile, Dell finishes at 7.1 points, a near-invisible season. The 25th percentile is 20.6 points, still well below useful fantasy production. The median simulated season lands at 41.9 points. The 75th percentile reaches 69.0 points, and the 90th percentile climbs to 107.4 points. That top-decile outcome is the one a drafter is actually buying: a season where Dell approaches his 2023 touchdown pace and stays healthy. The gap between the median and the 90th percentile is the widest part of this profile, and it is the honest reason anyone would roster him.
(bottom 10%)
(median)
(top 10%)
our projection
How to draft him
Dell does not have a market ADP across public 2026 drafts, which means he is not being drafted consistently enough on major platforms to produce a reliable median pick number. He is a Tier 9 asset ranked #268 overall and WR89. In a standard 12-team snake draft, players at this tier are typically available deep in the final rounds or go undrafted entirely. Roster him only if you have a vacancy to fill and are specifically targeting the upside scenario the 90th-percentile band describes. His bye is Week 8, worth noting when setting a late-season roster.
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Questions drafters ask
Over the two fully recorded seasons, Dell saw 75 targets in 2023 and 81 in 2024. The three-year average across 2023-2025 is 78 targets per season, so the volume has been consistent even as other numbers have shifted.
The 90th-percentile simulated season lands at 107.4 half-PPR points. That is the top-decile outcome, meaning only 10% of simulated seasons reached that level or higher. His 2023 season, which included 7 receiving touchdowns, is the historical comp for what a strong year looks like.
Dell is WR89 and #268 overall with a draft value of -71.5, placing him in Tier 9. A negative draft value means he projects below replacement level at wide receiver in a 12-team half-PPR format, so he should not be counted on as a starter.
Dell has no market ADP available across public 2026 draft platforms, meaning he is not being selected consistently enough to produce a reliable median pick number. He is likely available very late or undrafted in most leagues.
Practice it in a free mock draft →
Beyond the rankings
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