#178 overall · SF · 104.8 projected half-PPR pts · -41.0 Draft Value
San Francisco 49ers — 2026 Fantasy Outlook
The case for drafting him
The 49ers have a three-year track record that includes genuine elite production. In 2023 they posted 48 sacks, 22 interceptions, 10 forced fumbles, and allowed only 298 points against. That is a historically productive DST season, and it is the floor of what this unit has shown it can be. The 2023 campaign alone justifies keeping San Francisco on the radar. Forced fumbles have actually held steady or improved: 10 in 2023, then 13 in each of the two seasons that followed. Fumble recoveries climbed to 10 in 2025, the best of the three-year window. If the pass-rush and turnover numbers trend back toward their 2023 peak, the upside here is real.
What the model projects
The projection is 104.8 half-PPR fantasy points. The draft value is -41.0, meaning the projection sits below replacement level at the DST position in a 12-team half-PPR format. That places San Francisco at DST23 and #178 overall, in Tier 9. The three-year averages tell the story behind the number: 34.7 sacks, 13 interceptions, 12 forced fumbles, 7.3 fumble recoveries, 1.3 touchdowns, and 368.3 points allowed per season. The sack and interception averages are dragged down by the 2024 and 2025 seasons, where sacks fell to 36 and then 20, and interceptions dropped to 11 and then 6. Points allowed rose from 298 in 2023 to 436 in 2024 and 371 in 2025. The projection reflects that full three-year picture. The bye is Week 8.
| Sacks | INT | FF | FR | TD | Saf | PA | PA 1-6 | PA 7-13 | PA 14-20 | PA 21-27 | PA 28-34 | PA 35+ | Half-PPR | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2023 | 48 | 22 | 10 | 6 | 1 | 1 | 298 | 1 | 5 | 5 | 3 | 3 | — | 151.0 |
| 2024 | 36 | 11 | 13 | 6 | 2 | — | 436 | — | 3 | 3 | 5 | 2 | 4 | 92.0 |
| 2025 | 20 | 6 | 13 | 10 | 1 | — | 371 | — | 5 | 1 | 8 | 1 | 2 | 83.0 |
| 3-yr avg | 34.7 | 13 | 12 | 7.3 | 1.3 | 0.3 | 368.3 | — | — | — | — | — | — | 95.7 |
The range of outcomes
The variance here is wide and it runs in both directions. The 2023 season is the high-end proof of concept: 48 sacks, 22 interceptions, 298 points allowed. That kind of output would push this unit well above its current projection. The 2025 season is the cautionary data point: 20 sacks, 6 interceptions, 371 points allowed, with 8 games surrendering 21-27 points. A repeat of that profile would land well below 104.8 projected points. The forced fumble and recovery numbers have been more consistent across all three years, providing a modest floor, but the sack and interception lines are volatile enough that the actual season outcome could look very different from the projection in either direction.
How to draft him
San Francisco does not have a market ADP available, meaning the unit is not being drafted consistently enough across platforms to produce one. At DST23 and #178 overall in Tier 9, with a negative draft value, this is a late-round or streaming-tier option in most 12-team half-PPR drafts. The bye in Week 8 is worth noting for roster planning. The case for rostering San Francisco rests entirely on the 2023 ceiling being reachable again. If you are willing to hold a DST with that kind of upside variance, the historical production gives you a reason. If you need a reliable weekly floor, the 2024 and 2025 numbers argue for looking elsewhere first.
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Questions drafters ask
The model projects 104.8 points with a draft value of -41.0, placing San Francisco at DST23 and #178 overall in Tier 9. That is below replacement level at the position. The 2023 season shows elite upside, but the 2024 and 2025 seasons show meaningful regression in sacks and interceptions, and points allowed rose sharply. The projection reflects all three years.
Sacks went from 48 in 2023 to 36 in 2024 to 20 in 2025. The three-year average is 34.7. Interceptions followed a similar path: 22 in 2023, 11 in 2024, and 6 in 2025, for a three-year average of 13.
The 2023 season is the data point: 48 sacks, 22 interceptions, 10 forced fumbles, 6 fumble recoveries, 1 touchdown, 1 safety, and only 298 points allowed. That profile would produce a fantasy output well above the current 104.8-point projection.
San Francisco does not have a market ADP available, so there is no consistent draft-slot data to reference. At DST23 and #178 overall, the rankings place them in streaming territory. Their bye is Week 8, which is worth accounting for when setting your roster.
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Beyond the rankings
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