#179 overall · NO · 74.9 projected half-PPR pts · -40.8 Draft Value
Juwan Johnson — 2026 Fantasy Outlook
The case for drafting him
Juwan Johnson posted his best statistical season in 2025: 77 receptions on 102 targets for 889 receiving yards and 3 touchdowns. That target share represents a meaningful step up from the 66 targets he saw in 2024 and the 59 in 2023. Over the three-year window from 2023 through 2025, he averaged 54.7 receptions, 75.7 targets, and 601.7 receiving yards per season, with 3.3 receiving touchdowns per year. The 2025 line is the clearest evidence that he can function as a genuine volume option at tight end, not just a red-zone piece.
What the model projects
The projection is 87.9 half-PPR fantasy points. That sits below his 2025 actual production, and his draft value comes in at -32.0, placing him at TE20 and #157 overall in Tier 9. The projection is a point estimate; the median simulated season lands at 95.7 points, which is modestly above it. Both numbers are worth keeping in view.
| Tgt | Rec | Rec yds | Rec TD | Fum | Half-PPR | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2023 | 59 | 37 | 368 | 4 | — | 79.3 |
| 2024 | 66 | 50 | 548 | 3 | 2 | 97.8 |
| 2025 | 102 | 77 | 889 | 3 | 2 | 141.4 |
| 3-yr avg | 75.7 | 54.7 | 601.7 | 3.3 | 1.3 | 107.3 |
The range of outcomes
The outcome band is wide. At the pessimistic end, 10% of simulated seasons finish at or below 36.4 points, and the 25th percentile sits at 63.1. The median simulated season is 95.7 points. Moving upward, the 75th percentile reaches 118.6 points and the 90th percentile hits 147.5. That spread from floor to ceiling, roughly 36 to 148 points, reflects genuine season-to-season variance. His fumble history adds a layer of risk: he recorded 2 fumbles in both 2024 and 2025, with 2 fumbles lost in 2025. Touchdown volume has been consistent at 3 per season across all three years, but that consistency also caps the ceiling on scoring upside unless that rate climbs.
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our projection
How to draft him
Market ADP has Johnson going at pick 158.3, which works out to round 14, pick 2 in a 12-team draft. That is deep-draft territory. His bye is Week 8, worth noting for roster management in the early portion of the season. At TE20 and #157 overall, he is a late-round flier rather than a core piece. If you are targeting a high-upside late option at tight end, the 2025 target and yardage totals give you a real statistical foundation to point to. The floor, however, is low enough that he should not be your only tight end on the roster.
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Questions drafters ask
He caught 77 passes on 102 targets for 889 receiving yards and 3 touchdowns, his best season across all three tracked years.
The projection is 87.9 half-PPR fantasy points, with a median simulated season of 95.7 points. His draft value is -32.0, ranking him TE20 and #157 overall.
The 10th-percentile simulated season lands at 36.4 points, and the 25th percentile is 63.1. He also fumbled twice in each of the last two seasons, losing 2 in 2025, which is a real floor risk.
Market ADP puts him at 158.3, or round 14, pick 2 in a 12-team draft, based on a median across two platforms. That is late enough that he is a depth add rather than a draft-day priority.
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Beyond the rankings
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