#236 overall · PHI · 53.1 projected half-PPR pts · -57.1 Draft Value
Tank Bigsby — 2026 Fantasy Outlook
The case for drafting him
Tank Bigsby is now on Philadelphia, a franchise that has consistently committed to a physical ground game. His 2024 season showed genuine upside: 168 rush attempts, 766 rush yards, and 7 rushing touchdowns represent a meaningful step forward from his 50-carry rookie campaign in 2023. The touchdown rate in 2024 is the clearest argument in his favor. Near the goal line, he demonstrated he could be trusted with the ball in scoring situations, and that kind of role has real fantasy value even in a timeshare. His three-year averages of 93.7 rush attempts, 418 rush yards, and 3.7 rushing touchdowns per season reflect a player who has been used in a limited but purposeful way. If his role expands in Philadelphia, the 2024 production is the floor to point at.
What the model projects
The projection is 53.3 half-PPR fantasy points for the 2026 season. That places Bigsby at RB56 and #274 overall, inside Tier 9. His draft value is -76.2, meaning the projection sits below replacement level at the running back position in a 12-team half-PPR format. The median simulated season lands at 38.7 points. Philadelphia's bye week falls in Week 10.
| Car | Rush yds | Rush TD | Tgt | Rec | Rec yds | Fum | Half-PPR | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2023 | 50 | 132 | 2 | 4 | 1 | 6 | 1 | 24.3 |
| 2024 | 168 | 766 | 7 | 12 | 7 | 54 | 3 | 125.5 |
| 2025 | 63 | 356 | 2 | 4 | 3 | 32 | — | 52.3 |
| 3-yr avg | 93.7 | 418 | 3.7 | 6.7 | 3.7 | 30.7 | 1.3 | 68.9 |
The range of outcomes
The outcome band is wide, which is the defining feature of Bigsby's profile. At the pessimistic end, the bottom 10 percent of simulated seasons produces just 2.2 points, essentially a non-factor. The 25th percentile is 14.7 points, still a minimal contribution. The median sits at 38.7 points. From there the upside opens up considerably: the 75th percentile reaches 79.6 points and the top 10 percent of simulated seasons reaches 118.0 points. That p90 figure is the number a drafter is chasing. The gap between the p10 and p90 outcomes spans more than 115 points, which signals a high-variance profile where role and opportunity are the primary drivers. The fumble history is worth noting: three fumbles in 2024 and one in each of 2023 and 2025, averaging 1.3 per season over three years. Ball security has been a recurring issue and could affect his standing in any backfield rotation.
(bottom 10%)
(median)
(top 10%)
our projection
How to draft him
Bigsby does not have a market ADP across public 2026 drafts, which means he is not being consistently drafted on the platforms tracked. In practice, he is a late-flier or waiver-wire target rather than a pick you need to plan around. At RB56 and #274 overall, the projection reflects a depth piece. The play here is straightforward: if you want the p90 outcome of 118.0 points, you are betting on a role expansion in Philadelphia. Roster him only if you have the depth to absorb the downside, because the p10 of 2.2 points is a real possibility. He fits best as a handcuff or a speculative final-round add, not as a player you build around.
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Questions drafters ask
The projection is 53.3 points with a draft value of -76.2, placing him below replacement level at RB56 and #274 overall in Tier 9. The median simulated season is 38.7 points. He is a speculative depth add, not a reliable starter.
The top 10 percent of simulated seasons reaches 118.0 points in half-PPR. His 2024 season, which produced 766 rush yards and 7 rushing touchdowns on 168 attempts, is the historical data point that anchors that ceiling.
Bigsby has fumbled in each of the past three seasons: 1 in 2023, 3 in 2024, and 1 in 2025, for a three-year average of 1.3 fumbles per season. It is a consistent pattern and a legitimate risk factor for his role in any backfield.
He does not have a market ADP across the platforms tracked for 2026 drafts, so there is no consistent draft slot to plan around. He is not being drafted reliably enough to require a specific pick commitment.
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Beyond the rankings
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