#234 overall · WAS · 59.0 projected half-PPR pts · -56.7 Draft Value
Chig Okonkwo — 2026 Fantasy Outlook
The case for drafting him
Chig Okonkwo has been one of the more consistent volume producers at the tight end position over the past three seasons. From 2023 through 2025, he averaged 75.3 targets, 54 receptions, and 522.3 receiving yards per season. That is a reliable floor of involvement. His 2025 season was his best of the three: 79 targets, 56 receptions, 560 receiving yards, and 2 receiving touchdowns. The target volume has ticked upward each year, and the reception totals have followed. For a drafter building a roster late, that kind of steady usage is worth noting.
What the model projects
The projection for Okonkwo is 61.1 half-PPR fantasy points. His draftValue is -61.2, placing him TE30 and #223 overall in Tier 9. Those numbers reflect a player sitting below replacement level at his position in a 12-team half-PPR format. The projection is close to his three-year average production, which suggests the model sees his recent workload as a reasonable baseline rather than a departure from it. His bye week falls in Week 7.
| Tgt | Rec | Rec yds | Rec TD | Fum | Half-PPR | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2023 | 77 | 54 | 528 | 1 | — | 86.4 |
| 2024 | 70 | 52 | 479 | 2 | 1 | 85.6 |
| 2025 | 79 | 56 | 560 | 2 | — | 96.0 |
| 3-yr avg | 75.3 | 54 | 522.3 | 1.7 | 0.3 | 90.2 |
The range of outcomes
The simulated season band is wide. The p10 outcome is 18.5 points, a near-total loss of fantasy value. The p25 sits at 36.5 points. The median simulated season lands at 62.4 points, close to the 61.1 point projection. The p75 outcome reaches 86.5 points, and the p90 outcome climbs to 118.8 points. That upper tail is meaningful: in a strong season, Okonkwo can produce at a level that would make him a usable streamer or even a weekly starter. The gap between the p10 and p90 outcomes, however, is over 100 points, which signals real variance. His three-year history of 1.7 receiving touchdowns per season and a single fumble lost over that span are the stabilizing factors in the profile.
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our projection
How to draft him
Okonkwo does not have a market ADP across public 2026 drafts, which means he is not being consistently drafted on the platforms tracked. In a standard 12-team snake draft, he is a late-round or undrafted option. At TE30 and #223 overall, he is a depth piece or a handcuff for a drafter who already has a starter at the position. His consistent target share makes him a reasonable stash if the tight end position runs thin on your roster, but his negative draftValue means he projects below what replacement-level production looks like in this format. Draft him only after your positional needs are covered.
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Questions drafters ask
At TE30 and #223 overall with a draftValue of -61.2, he projects below replacement level in a 12-team half-PPR format. The projection is 61.1 points, and the median simulated season is 62.4 points. He is better suited as a depth option than a week-one starter.
Over the past three seasons he averaged 75.3 targets and 54 receptions per year. His 2025 season was his highest in both categories: 79 targets and 56 receptions. The volume has been consistent and has trended slightly upward.
The p90 simulated outcome is 118.8 points, meaning roughly one in ten simulated seasons reaches that level. His p75 outcome is 86.5 points. Those figures represent a meaningful ceiling for a player at his tier, though the p10 outcome of 18.5 points shows the downside is equally real.
He has no market ADP across the platforms tracked, so he is not being consistently drafted in public 2026 leagues. He is a late-round or undrafted target, appropriate only after your starting positions are filled.
Practice it in a free mock draft →
Beyond the rankings
This page ranks the players. Nobody has ranked the people in your league.
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