Isaiah Likely — 2026 Fantasy Outlook

The case for drafting him

Isaiah Likely arrives in New York as a tight end with three seasons of NFL receiving work on his resume. His best year came in 2024: 58 targets, 42 receptions, 477 yards, and 6 receiving touchdowns. That touchdown rate is the clearest argument in his favor. Over the three-year window from 2023 through 2025, he averaged 4 receiving touchdowns per season across an average of 44.7 targets and 33 receptions. For a tight end, touchdowns are the currency that makes a season, and Likely has shown he can find the end zone when given a role. The 2025 season was quieter, 36 targets, 27 receptions, 307 yards, and 1 touchdown, but the underlying receiving profile across all three years shows a player who has held a consistent target share when active. A drafter looking for late-round tight end upside will find a player here with a real scoring history.

What the model projects

The projection for Likely is 84.6 half-PPR fantasy points. That places him at TE18 and #170 overall, landing in Tier 9. His draft value sits at -37.7, meaning the projection falls below replacement level at the tight end position in a 12-team half-PPR format. The median simulated season, at 91.6 points, runs slightly above the point estimate of 84.6, which reflects the shape of his outcome distribution. Neither number suggests a player who profiles as a reliable weekly starter at the position in this format.

The range of outcomes

The simulated season band is wide, which is the defining feature of Likely's outlook. At the pessimistic end, the bottom 10 percent of simulated seasons land at or below 34.2 points. The 25th percentile is 59.9 points. The median sits at 91.6. The 75th percentile reaches 114.7, and the top 10 percent of simulated seasons come in at or above 143.9 points. That spread from 34.2 to 143.9 is substantial. The floor is a near-irrelevant fantasy season; the ceiling is a genuinely useful tight end finish. The 2025 stat line, 1 touchdown on 36 targets, illustrates what the low end looks like in practice. The 2024 line, 6 touchdowns on 58 targets, illustrates the ceiling. Touchdown variance is the engine driving that range. The fumble history is a minor note: 2 fumbles in 2025, 1 lost, after 1 fumble in 2024, 1 lost.

How to draft him

The market is currently taking Likely at pick 131.5 on average, which works out to round 11, pick 11 in a 12-team draft, based on a median across two platforms. That is the pick you would need to spend to secure him. His projection of 84.6 points and a draft value of -37.7 place him at TE18 and #170 overall in Tier 9. For a drafter who has addressed tight end earlier and wants a high-variance dart throw in the late rounds, the round 11 price is the relevant planning number. His bye is Week 8. Given the width of his outcome band, he is a player whose season will be defined almost entirely by touchdown volume, so a drafter should enter the season prepared for either end of that range.

Over 2023 through 2025, he averaged 44.7 targets, 33 receptions, 398.3 receiving yards, and 4 receiving touchdowns per season. His best individual season was 2024: 58 targets, 42 receptions, 477 yards, and 6 touchdowns. His lightest was 2025: 36 targets, 27 receptions, 307 yards, and 1 touchdown.

The projection is 84.6 half-PPR fantasy points. That ranks him TE18 and #170 overall, placing him in Tier 9 with a draft value of -37.7, which is below replacement level at tight end in a 12-team half-PPR format.

The simulated season band runs from 34.2 points at the 10th percentile to 143.9 at the 90th percentile, with a median of 91.6. That is a very wide spread. Touchdown volume is the primary variable: his single-season totals have ranged from 1 to 6 receiving touchdowns across the three years on record.

The market ADP is 131.5, which translates to round 11, pick 11 in a 12-team draft, based on a median across two platforms. That is the pick you would need to commit to secure him.