Sam LaPorta — 2026 Fantasy Outlook

The case for drafting him

LaPorta's 2023 debut is the anchor of the bull case: 120 targets, 86 receptions, 889 receiving yards, and 10 touchdowns in his first NFL season. That kind of volume and efficiency out of the gate established him as a legitimate every-week starter at the position. The three-year aggregate tells a more complicated story, 84 targets, 62 receptions, 701.3 receiving yards, and 6.7 touchdowns per season, but the floor that 2023 set is real. Detroit has shown a willingness to funnel work through the tight end, and LaPorta has the reception and target history to absorb a heavy share of that usage when things click. For a drafter who wants a TE with proven upside already on the tape, that 2023 line is the evidence.

What the model projects

The projection is 119.5 half-PPR fantasy points. LaPorta ranks #80 overall and TE7 by draft value, sitting in Tier 9. His draft value is -2.9, which places him just below replacement level at the position in a 12-team half-PPR format. The median simulated season lands at 130.0 points, a tick above the point estimate, which reflects a distribution that skews modestly upward. His bye is Week 6.

The range of outcomes

The outcome band is wide. At the pessimistic end, the bottom 10% of simulated seasons produces 64.3 points, a number that would make him a weekly liability. The 25th percentile comes in at 94.6 points, still a difficult season to manage. The median sits at 130.0 points, a serviceable TE1 week-to-week. The 75th percentile reaches 152.4 points, and the top 10% of simulated seasons hits 179.9 points, a figure that would make him one of the more productive tight ends in the format. The gap between the p10 and p90 is 115.6 points, which signals meaningful season-to-season variance. The three-year stat trend, from 120 targets in 2023 down to 49 in 2025, is the primary driver of that spread. A season closer to 2023 looks like the p90; a continuation of the 2025 line looks like the p10.

How to draft him

Market ADP has LaPorta going at pick 75.5, which translates to the 7th round, 4th pick in a 12-team draft (7.04). That is the pick you need to spend to secure him. At TE7 with a projection of 119.5 points and a draft value of -2.9, he is a late-round TE option rather than a foundational piece. The wide outcome band means the position you take him from matters: if you have already secured a higher-floor tight end, LaPorta makes sense as a speculative add at that price. If he is your primary TE, the downside at p10 (64.3 points) is a real roster risk to plan around. His Week 6 bye is worth noting for lineup management purposes.

The projection of 119.5 points and a TE7 rank suggest a fringe starter, not a locked-in every-week TE1. His draft value of -2.9 puts him just below replacement level in a 12-team half-PPR format. The median simulated season at 130.0 points is workable, but the p10 outcome of 64.3 points is a real downside scenario to account for.

In 2023 he saw 120 targets. That fell to 83 in 2024 and 49 in 2025. The three-year average is 84 targets per season, pulled up significantly by that 2023 peak. The trend line is the central tension in his outlook.

Market ADP puts him at pick 75.5, or round 7, pick 4 in a 12-team draft. That is the current market price to secure him before he comes off the list.

The 90th percentile of simulated seasons produces 179.9 half-PPR points. His 2023 actual season, 889 receiving yards, 86 receptions, and 10 touchdowns, is the historical reference point for what that ceiling looks like in practice.