#342 overall · ATL · 35.5 projected half-PPR pts · -80.2 Draft Value
Austin Hooper — 2026 Fantasy Outlook
The case for drafting him
Austin Hooper is a veteran tight end on Atlanta's roster with three seasons of recent production to evaluate. His best recent campaign came in 2024: 59 targets, 45 receptions, 476 receiving yards, and 3 receiving touchdowns. That is a legitimate contributor's stat line at the position. The 2025 season pulled back to 26 targets, 21 receptions, 263 yards, and 2 scores. Over the three-year window from 2023 through 2025, he averaged 38.7 targets, 30.3 receptions, 324.3 receiving yards, and 1.7 receiving touchdowns per season. The case for drafting him is narrow and situational: if you need a late-roster tight end and every other option is gone, his 2024 line shows he can produce when the opportunity is there.
What the model projects
The projection is 36.8 half-PPR fantasy points for the 2026 season. His draft value is -82.9, placing him #302 overall and TE49. He sits in Tier 9. Those numbers describe a player who projects well below replacement level at the tight end position in a 12-team half-PPR format. The projection of 36.8 points reflects a modest expected role, consistent with the lower end of his three-year target averages rather than a repeat of his 2024 peak. Atlanta's bye week falls in Week 11.
| Tgt | Rec | Rec yds | Rec TD | Fum | Half-PPR | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2023 | 31 | 25 | 234 | — | — | 35.9 |
| 2024 | 59 | 45 | 476 | 3 | 2 | 86.1 |
| 2025 | 26 | 21 | 263 | 2 | — | 48.8 |
| 3-yr avg | 38.7 | 30.3 | 324.3 | 1.7 | 0.7 | 57.8 |
The range of outcomes
The simulated season band is wide, which is the defining feature of Hooper's outlook. The bottom 10 percent of simulated seasons land at or below 3.6 points. The 25th percentile is 13.7 points. The median simulated season comes in at 32.2 points, below the 36.8 point estimate. The 75th percentile reaches 56.1 points, and the top 10 percent of simulated seasons finish at or above 86.0 points. That 86.0-point ceiling is meaningful in absolute terms, but the gap between the median (32.2) and the downside (3.6 at p10) illustrates how frequently the low-end outcome materializes in simulation. Most simulated seasons cluster well below the point estimate.
(bottom 10%)
(median)
(top 10%)
our projection
How to draft him
Hooper does not have a market ADP across public 2026 drafts, which means he is not being drafted consistently enough on major platforms to generate one. In a 12-team half-PPR snake draft, he is a free agent in most rooms. At TE49 with a draft value of -82.9, he is a last-resort option: a name to add off the waiver wire or claim as a final roster spot if the position runs dry. Do not spend a meaningful pick here. His 2024 production is real, but the projection and the rank reflect where the model puts his expected 2026 contribution, and that number is below replacement level.
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Questions drafters ask
He is ranked TE49 with a draft value of -82.9, placing him #302 overall in Tier 9. He projects for 36.8 half-PPR points, which is below replacement level at the position. He has no market ADP across public drafts, meaning most rooms are not spending a pick on him at all. He is a waiver-wire name, not a draft target.
In 2024 he caught 45 of 59 targets for 476 receiving yards and 3 touchdowns, with 2 fumbles and 1 lost. That was his strongest season in the three-year window from 2023 to 2025.
The 90th-percentile simulated season lands at 86.0 half-PPR points. That is the top 10 percent of outcomes in simulation. The 75th percentile is 56.1 points. Both figures are reachable but represent the better end of a wide outcome band whose median sits at 32.2 points.
His three-year averages from 2023 through 2025 are 38.7 targets, 30.3 receptions, 324.3 receiving yards, and 1.7 receiving touchdowns per season. His target volume ranged from a low of 26 in 2025 to a high of 59 in 2024, so the year-to-year variance in opportunity has been significant.
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Beyond the rankings
This page ranks the players. Nobody has ranked the people in your league.
Half your room drafts off a sheet like this one. The managers who cash every year aren't holding a better sheet; they have tendencies, and after enough seasons the tendencies are a book. Your league's own draft history is where it's written.
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Names invented. Most long-running leagues have a table like this.