#77 overall · PIT · 127.5 projected half-PPR pts · -0.9 Draft Value · Market ADP 81.3
Rico Dowdle — 2026 Fantasy Outlook
The case for drafting him
Rico Dowdle has back-to-back seasons of 235-plus rush attempts and over 1,000 rushing yards, posting 1,079 yards on 235 carries in 2024 and 1,076 yards on 236 carries in 2025. The workload is real and it has been consistent. His receiving role has grown alongside it: 49 targets and 39 receptions in 2024, then 50 targets and 39 receptions again in 2025, adding 249 and 297 receiving yards in those respective seasons. The three-year averages tell the same story: 186.7 rush attempts, 40.3 targets, and 838.7 rushing yards per season, with the most recent two years sitting well above that average on the ground. He also cleaned up the ball-security issues that surfaced in 2024, going from 3 fumbles and 2 lost to 1 fumble and 1 lost in 2025. The touchdown production ticked up sharply in 2025 as well, with 6 rushing touchdowns and 1 receiving touchdown after totaling just 2 and 3 in those categories the year before.
What the model projects
The projection is 127.5 half-PPR fantasy points. Dowdle sits at RB30 and #77 overall, landing in Tier 9. His draft value is -0.9, which places him just below replacement level at the position in a 12-team half-PPR format. The point estimate of 127.5 is close to his simulated median of 132.3, so the projection and the typical simulated season are in the same neighborhood.
| Car | Rush yds | Rush TD | Tgt | Rec | Rec yds | Rec TD | Fum | Half-PPR | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2023 | 89 | 361 | 2 | 22 | 17 | 144 | 2 | — | 83.0 |
| 2024 | 235 | 1079 | 2 | 49 | 39 | 249 | 3 | 3 | 178.3 |
| 2025 | 236 | 1076 | 6 | 50 | 39 | 297 | 1 | 1 | 196.8 |
| 3-yr avg | 186.7 | 838.7 | 3.3 | 40.3 | 31.7 | 230 | 2 | 1.3 | 154.5 |
The range of outcomes
The outcome band is wide. At the pessimistic end, 10% of simulated seasons finish at or below 44.0 points, and the 25th percentile sits at 82.6. The median simulated season lands at 132.3 points. On the upside, the 75th percentile reaches 177.9 and the top 10% of simulated seasons come in at 218.9 points or better. That is a spread of roughly 175 points from the 10th to the 90th percentile, which reflects meaningful variance in how a season at this tier can play out. The floor is low enough to matter, but the ceiling at the 90th percentile is a legitimate fantasy contributor.
(bottom 10%)
(median)
(top 10%)
our projection
How to draft him
Dowdle's market ADP is 81.3, which works out to pick 7.09 in a 12-team snake draft. That is where you would need to spend a pick to secure him. His bye is Week 9, so plan your roster depth accordingly for that week. At a draft value of -0.9, he sits right at the replacement-level line for the position, meaning the projection does not hand you a surplus at this tier. The wide outcome band is the key variable: the upside at the 75th and 90th percentiles is meaningful, but the downside at the 10th percentile is steep. Know what you are getting into before committing a seventh-round pick.
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Questions drafters ask
Yes. He logged 235 rush attempts in 2024 and 236 in 2025, with over 1,000 rushing yards in each of those seasons. The three-year average is 186.7 rush attempts per year, pulled down by a lighter 2023 workload of 89 carries.
It has been consistent across the last two seasons: 49 targets and 39 receptions in 2024, then 50 targets and 39 receptions again in 2025. The three-year average is 40.3 targets and 31.7 receptions per season.
The 10th-percentile simulated season finishes at 44.0 half-PPR points, and the 25th percentile is 82.6. Those are low totals for a seventh-round investment, so the floor is a genuine concern.
His market ADP is 81.3, which translates to pick 7.09 in a 12-team snake draft. That is the price the market is currently setting for him.
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Beyond the rankings
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