Patrick Mahomes — 2026 Fantasy Outlook

The case for drafting him

The three-year averages tell a consistent story: 369.3 completions on 560 attempts, 3,899.3 passing yards, 25 passing touchdowns, and 65.7 rush attempts producing 372.7 rush yards per season. The rushing floor is real and durable. In 2025 he posted career-high rush touchdowns at 5 and 422 rush yards, the best of the three-year window. That dual-threat production is what keeps him relevant in half-PPR formats even as the passing volume has trended downward across the three seasons. If you need a QB late and want one with a rushing safety net, the historical profile supports that case.

What the model projects

The projection is 245.8 half-PPR fantasy points. That sits above the median simulated season of 234.9, meaning the point estimate leans slightly toward the optimistic side of the distribution. The draft value is -15.0, placing him at QB11 and #114 overall in Tier 9. At that tier and rank, the model is not treating him as a difference-maker relative to replacement level at the position.

The range of outcomes

The outcome band is wide. At the pessimistic end, 10% of simulated seasons finish at or below 95.7 points, a number that reflects how badly a low-volume, turnover-heavy season can crater a QB's fantasy value. The 25th percentile is 175.7 points, still a difficult season to roster. The median lands at 234.9, the 75th percentile at 302.3, and the top-10% threshold at 357.4. That 261.7-point spread from p10 to p90 is substantial. The upside is genuine, but so is the floor risk. His three-year interception average of 12 per season and 3.3 fumbles per season are the clearest drivers of that downside tail.

How to draft him

Market ADP has him going at pick 109.6, which works out to the 10th round, 2nd pick in a 12-team draft (10.02). That is a late-round QB slot. The model ranks him #114 overall and QB11. A bye in Week 5 is early enough to require a handshake plan at the position. If you are running a late-QB strategy and want a dual-threat profile as your starter, Round 10 is when you would need to commit. If you are willing to wait longer, the -15.0 draft value signals the model does not see a surplus here, so patience has a cost only if the rushing upside materializes into the 302-to-357 range of the band.

The model projects him at 245.8 points and ranks him QB11 with a draft value of -15.0, meaning he projects below replacement level at the position in a 12-team half-PPR format. The upside band reaches 357.4 points at the 90th percentile, so the ceiling is real, but the floor at the 10th percentile is just 95.7 points. Whether that profile fits your roster construction depends on how you weigh the rushing contribution against the turnover risk.

Market ADP puts him at pick 109.6, or Round 10, Pick 2 in a 12-team draft. That is the window where you would need to spend a pick to secure him. His #114 overall rank and QB11 position rank give you a reference point for how the model values him relative to the rest of the field.

Over the last three seasons he has averaged 369.3 completions, 3,899.3 passing yards, 25 passing touchdowns, and 12 interceptions per year. Rush production has been consistent: 65.7 attempts and 372.7 yards per season on average, with 2025 being his best rushing year at 422 yards and 5 rush touchdowns.

The simulated season band runs from 95.7 points at the 10th percentile to 357.4 at the 90th percentile. The three-year averages show 12 interceptions and 3.3 fumbles per season, and passing volume has declined each year from 597 attempts in 2023 to 502 in 2025. Those are the clearest factors behind the wide spread and the low floor.