#114 overall · IND · 98.2 projected half-PPR pts · -17.0 Draft Value
Alec Pierce — 2026 Fantasy Outlook
The case for drafting him
Alec Pierce has posted back-to-back seasons of growth, and the 2025 line is the clearest statement yet: 1,003 receiving yards, 47 receptions, 84 targets, and 6 touchdowns. That is a receiver who has expanded his role in each of the three seasons on record. The three-year averages back the trend: 72.7 targets, 38.7 receptions, 780.3 yards, and 5 touchdowns per season. The 2025 numbers sit above every one of those averages, which means the most recent season is pulling the line upward, not regressing toward it. For a drafter looking at WR32, that trajectory is the argument.
What the model projects
The projection is 128.8 half-PPR fantasy points, with a draft value of +0.0, placing Pierce at #74 overall and WR32. He sits in Tier 9. The projection lands just below the median simulated season of 129.6 points, a negligible difference. At +0.0 draft value, Pierce projects at exactly replacement level for his position in a 12-team half-PPR format. He is not a surplus play on paper; he is the line.
| Tgt | Rec | Rec yds | Rec TD | Half-PPR | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2023 | 65 | 32 | 514 | 2 | 79.4 |
| 2024 | 69 | 37 | 824 | 7 | 142.9 |
| 2025 | 84 | 47 | 1003 | 6 | 159.8 |
| 3-yr avg | 72.7 | 38.7 | 780.3 | 5 | 127.4 |
The range of outcomes
The outcome band is wide. The bottom 10% of simulated seasons land at 53.9 points, a number that reflects genuine downside risk at this roster spot. The 25th percentile is 89.1 points. The median is 129.6. The 75th percentile reaches 164.3, and the top 10% of simulated seasons finish at 203.3 points. That 203.3 ceiling is meaningful: it represents a season that would make Pierce a clear weekly starter. The gap between the p10 and p90 is roughly 150 points, so the range of outcomes here is substantial. Drafters who land the upside scenario get a starter; those who land the downside get a roster problem.
(bottom 10%)
(median)
(top 10%)
our projection
How to draft him
Market ADP is 79.7, which works out to pick 7.08 in a 12-team draft, based on a median across two platforms. That is the pick you spend to secure him. His bye is Week 13, late enough in the fantasy season to matter in leagues with playoff schedules that run through that week. At WR32 and #74 overall, Pierce is a depth piece or a flex option depending on how the rest of your roster fills out. Given the width of his outcome band, he fits best as a pick you make after your core is set, with the understanding that the upside scenario is real and the floor is low.
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Questions drafters ask
Pierce posted 1,003 receiving yards, 47 receptions, 84 targets, and 6 touchdowns in 2025, his best season across all four categories in the three years on record.
The projection of 128.8 half-PPR points places him at #74 overall and WR32, in Tier 9, with a draft value of exactly +0.0.
The top 10% of simulated seasons finish at 203.3 half-PPR points. The 75th percentile is 164.3 points. The floor, at the 10th percentile, is 53.9 points.
Market ADP is 79.7, which translates to pick 7.08 in a 12-team draft. That is the average pick cost across two platforms, so plan to spend a seventh-round pick if you want him.
Practice it in a free mock draft →
Beyond the rankings
This page ranks the players. Nobody has ranked the people in your league.
Half your room drafts off a sheet like this one. The managers who cash every year aren't holding a better sheet; they have tendencies, and after enough seasons the tendencies are a book. Your league's own draft history is where it's written.
RotoAlpha reads it. Paste your past drafts, from any platform, and every manager in your league gets a profile: who reaches, who chases runs, who pays up for their own team. Then it sits with you on draft night with a plan that adapts pick by pick, knowing who is likely to reach next.
Names invented. Most long-running leagues have a table like this.