#921 overall · ATL · 123.7 projected half-PPR pts · -124.1 Draft Value
Michael Penix — 2026 Fantasy Outlook
The case for drafting him
Michael Penix is a deep-roster stash, not a starter, and the case for drafting him is built entirely on upside optionality. His 2025 season showed real growth: 1,982 passing yards, 9 passing touchdowns, and a 60.1 completion rate on 276 attempts. That is a meaningful step forward from his 2024 line of 775 yards and 3 passing touchdowns on 105 attempts. He also added 70 rushing yards and a rushing score in 2025, giving him a modest dual-threat floor. For a drafter willing to carry a handcuff-style QB2 late in a draft, Penix represents a live arm with a recent season of legitimate production behind him.
What the model projects
The projection is 57.6 half-PPR fantasy points for 2026. That puts Penix at QB40 and #943 overall, sitting in Tier 9. His draft value is -203.7, meaning the projection lands well below replacement level at the quarterback position in a 12-team half-PPR format. This is a below-replacement-level outlook by a wide margin, and the rank and tier reflect that plainly.
| Att | Comp | Pass yds | Pass TD | INT | Car | Rush yds | Rush TD | Fum | Half-PPR | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024 | 105 | 61 | 775 | 3 | 3 | 7 | 11 | 1 | 2 | 47.1 |
| 2025 | 276 | 166 | 1982 | 9 | 3 | 21 | 70 | 1 | 4 | 121.3 |
| 3-yr avg | 190.5 | 113.5 | 1378.5 | 6 | 3 | 14 | 40.5 | 1 | 3 | 86.2 |
The range of outcomes
The outcome band is wide and skewed heavily toward the low end. The p10 is 0.0 points, the p25 is 10.0 points, and the median simulated season lands at just 19.4 points. The p75 rises to 64.5 points and the p90 reaches 125.8 points. The vast majority of simulated seasons cluster near zero, with meaningful fantasy production appearing only in the upper tail. That shape tells you this is a high-variance, low-floor situation: most outcomes are negligible, but the top 10 percent of seasons produce a usable fantasy QB.
(bottom 10%)
(median)
(top 10%)
our projection
How to draft him
Penix does not have a market ADP across public 2026 drafts, which means he is not being consistently drafted on the platforms tracked. In practice, he is a free agent in most drafts. If you want him, you can likely wait until the final rounds or claim him off waivers entirely. Given his Tier 9 placement and QB40 rank, there is no urgency to spend a meaningful pick. He belongs on the radar only as a late-round emergency option or a post-draft add for managers who want a speculative QB2 with a bye week of 11.
Practice it in a free mock draft →
Questions drafters ask
His projection is 57.6 half-PPR points and his draft value is -203.7, placing him at QB40 and #943 overall in Tier 9. That is a below-replacement-level outlook. He carries real upside in the top 10 percent of simulated seasons (125.8 points at p90), but the median simulated season is just 19.4 points. He is a speculative late-roster add, not a reliable QB2.
He completed 166 of 276 pass attempts for 1,982 yards, 9 passing touchdowns, and 3 interceptions. He added 70 rushing yards and 1 rushing touchdown on 21 attempts, with 4 fumbles (2 lost). It was a step up from his 2024 line of 775 passing yards and 3 passing touchdowns on 105 attempts.
He has no market ADP across the platforms tracked, meaning he is not being consistently drafted in public 2026 drafts. He is effectively available as a free agent in most leagues. There is no need to spend a pick on him before the final rounds, if at all.
The p90 of his outcome band is 125.8 half-PPR fantasy points, meaning only the top 10 percent of his simulated seasons reach that level. The p75 is 64.5 points. Those are the numbers that define his ceiling range; the floor, at p10, is 0.0 points.
Practice it in a free mock draft →
Beyond the rankings
This page ranks the players. Nobody has ranked the people in your league.
Half your room drafts off a sheet like this one. The managers who cash every year aren't holding a better sheet; they have tendencies, and after enough seasons the tendencies are a book. Your league's own draft history is where it's written.
RotoAlpha reads it. Paste your past drafts, from any platform, and every manager in your league gets a profile: who reaches, who chases runs, who pays up for their own team. Then it sits with you on draft night with a plan that adapts pick by pick, knowing who is likely to reach next.
Names invented. Most long-running leagues have a table like this.