#232 overall · GB · 53.7 projected half-PPR pts · -56.5 Draft Value · Market ADP 107.2
MarShawn Lloyd — 2026 Fantasy Outlook
The case for drafting him
MarShawn Lloyd is a Green Bay Packers running back with a Week 11 bye. The case for drafting him rests almost entirely on opportunity that has not yet materialized in the stat sheet. His three-year aggregate through 2025 shows 6 rush attempts for 15 yards and 1 reception for 3 receiving yards, numbers that reflect a player who has barely touched the field. For a drafter willing to speculate deep in a draft, the argument is that the production floor cannot get much lower, and any meaningful role expansion would represent a significant step up from that baseline.
What the model projects
The projection is 58.3 half-PPR fantasy points for the season. That sits well below replacement level at the running back position, producing a Draft Value of -69.1. Lloyd ranks #263 overall and RB61, placing him in Tier 9. These numbers reflect a player the model sees as a deep-depth option rather than a reliable weekly contributor.
| Car | Rush yds | Tgt | Rec | Rec yds | Half-PPR | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024 | 6 | 15 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 2.3 |
| 3-yr avg | 6 | 15 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 2.3 |
The range of outcomes
The simulated season band is wide and skewed. The bottom 10% of simulated seasons land at or below 4.1 points, and the median simulated season comes in at 45.8 points. The top 25% of outcomes reach 87.0 points or better, and the top 10% reach 127.2 points or better. That upper tail is the only scenario where Lloyd becomes a usable fantasy asset. The distance between the p10 and p90 outcomes, 4.1 to 127.2, signals that this projection carries substantial variance. Most simulated seasons cluster well below the point estimate; the mean is pulled upward by a relatively small number of high-end outcomes.
(bottom 10%)
(median)
(top 10%)
our projection
How to draft him
Market ADP sits at 106.6, which works out to pick 9.11 in a 12-team draft, based on a median across two platforms. That is the pick you would need to spend to secure him before the field does. His overall rank of #263 and position rank of RB61 place him far outside the range where a pick in Round 9 typically lands. Drafters who want Lloyd should be aware that the market is pricing him considerably earlier than the rankings suggest his value sits. If you are targeting him as a late-round flier, the ADP means you may need to commit a pick earlier than you planned.
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Questions drafters ask
His entire recorded stat history through 2025 is 6 rush attempts for 15 yards, 1 target, 1 reception, and 3 receiving yards. That three-year aggregate is identical to his 2024 season line, meaning all of his NFL touches came in 2024.
The projection is 58.3 half-PPR points for the season. The top 10% of simulated outcomes reach 127.2 points or better, so there is a ceiling, but it is only realized in a small share of simulated seasons. The median simulated season is 45.8 points, below even the 58.3 point estimate.
Market ADP is 106.6, which translates to pick 9.11 in a 12-team snake draft. That median is drawn from two platforms, so it carries some uncertainty, but it is the current market signal for when he comes off the board.
His Draft Value is -69.1 and he ranks RB61, both figures that place him below replacement level in a standard 12-team half-PPR format. He is a Tier 9 player. The numbers make him a speculative stash rather than a player with a reliable path to fantasy relevance.
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Beyond the rankings
This page ranks the players. Nobody has ranked the people in your league.
Half your room drafts off a sheet like this one. The managers who cash every year aren't holding a better sheet; they have tendencies, and after enough seasons the tendencies are a book. Your league's own draft history is where it's written.
RotoAlpha reads it. Paste your past drafts, from any platform, and every manager in your league gets a profile: who reaches, who chases runs, who pays up for their own team. Then it sits with you on draft night with a plan that adapts pick by pick, knowing who is likely to reach next.
Names invented. Most long-running leagues have a table like this.