#11 overall · LAR · 211.9 projected half-PPR pts · +84.5 Draft Value · Market ADP 26.7
Kyren Williams — 2026 Fantasy Outlook
The case for drafting him
Kyren Williams has posted back-to-back 1,000-yard rushing seasons, going for 1,144 yards and 12 touchdowns in 2023, then 1,299 yards and 14 touchdowns in 2024, then 1,252 yards and 10 rushing touchdowns in 2025. That three-year average sits at 1,231.7 rushing yards, 267.7 attempts, 12 rushing touchdowns, 34 receptions, 223 receiving yards, and 2.7 receiving touchdowns per season. The receiving side has trended upward: targets climbed from 48 in 2023 to 50 in 2025, and receiving yards jumped to 281 in 2025, the highest of the three-year stretch. Williams is a workhorse with a consistent touchdown floor and a receiving role that has quietly grown. The fumble numbers bear watching — he has averaged 3.3 fumbles and 2 fumbles lost per season over the three-year window — but the volume and scoring production have remained durable across all three campaigns.
What the model projects
The projection for Williams is 211.9 half-PPR fantasy points. His draft value is +84.5, meaning he projects 84.5 points above the replacement-level running back in a 12-team half-PPR format. That places him #11 overall and RB7 in Tier 3 of the rankings. The point estimate of 211.9 sits below the median simulated season of 223.4, which reflects the shape of his outcome distribution rather than any contradiction in the numbers. Both figures are worth keeping in mind: the projection is the headline, and the median simulated season tells you where a typical Williams season lands in the model's full run of scenarios.
| Car | Rush yds | Rush TD | Tgt | Rec | Rec yds | Rec TD | Fum | Half-PPR | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2023 | 228 | 1144 | 12 | 48 | 32 | 206 | 3 | 3 | 237.0 |
| 2024 | 316 | 1299 | 14 | 40 | 34 | 182 | 2 | 5 | 255.1 |
| 2025 | 259 | 1252 | 10 | 50 | 36 | 281 | 3 | 2 | 245.3 |
| 3-yr avg | 267.7 | 1231.7 | 12 | 46 | 34 | 223 | 2.7 | 3.3 | 250.7 |
The range of outcomes
Williams carries meaningful variance. In the bottom 10 percent of simulated seasons, he finishes at 115.2 points — a significant step down from his recent production. The 25th percentile is 166.7 points, still a useful contributor but well short of his ceiling. The median simulated season is 223.4 points, consistent with his recent three-year averages. At the 75th percentile he reaches 271.7 points, and in the top 10 percent of simulated seasons he hits 304.9 points. The spread from p10 to p90 is 189.7 points, which is a wide band. The upside is genuine and the floor is real. His bye falls in Week 11, which is worth noting for playoff-schedule planning.
(bottom 10%)
(median)
(top 10%)
our projection
How to draft him
Williams is ranked #11 overall and RB7. The market is currently drafting him at an average of pick 26.7, which works out to the 3rd round, 3rd pick in a 12-team snake draft (3.03), based on a median across two platforms. That is the pick you need to spend to secure him. His +84.5 draft value confirms he projects well above replacement level at the position, so the question is simply whether you are comfortable committing a third-round pick to a running back with a wide outcome band. If you enter the draft with a plan to target Williams in Round 3, you have a clear price to work around.
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Questions drafters ask
His receiving role has grown steadily. Targets went from 48 in 2023 to 40 in 2024 and back up to 50 in 2025. Receiving yards followed a similar arc: 206 in 2023, 182 in 2024, and a three-year high of 281 in 2025. Receptions have been consistent at 32, 34, and 36 in those same years. The three-year averages are 46 targets, 34 receptions, and 223 receiving yards per season.
The 10th-percentile simulated season lands at 115.2 half-PPR points, and the 25th percentile is 166.7 points. Those are the model's bad-season benchmarks. His fumble history is also worth factoring in: he has averaged 3.3 fumbles and 2 fumbles lost per season over the 2023-2025 stretch.
The market is currently taking him at an average of pick 26.7, which translates to 3.03 in a 12-team snake draft. That median is drawn from two platforms, so treat it as a directional signal. If you want Williams, budget a third-round pick.
Williams has scored at least 15 total touchdowns in each of the past three seasons: 15 in 2023 (12 rush, 3 receiving), 16 in 2024 (14 rush, 2 receiving), and 13 in 2025 (10 rush, 3 receiving). The three-year averages are 12 rushing touchdowns and 2.7 receiving touchdowns per season.
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Beyond the rankings
This page ranks the players. Nobody has ranked the people in your league.
Half your room drafts off a sheet like this one. The managers who cash every year aren't holding a better sheet; they have tendencies, and after enough seasons the tendencies are a book. Your league's own draft history is where it's written.
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Names invented. Most long-running leagues have a table like this.