#10 overall · DET · 226.6 projected half-PPR pts · +97.9 Draft Value · Market ADP 7.5
Amon-Ra St. Brown — 2026 Fantasy Outlook
The case for drafting him
Amon-Ra St. Brown has been one of the most consistent volume receivers in the NFL over the past three seasons. From 2023 through 2025, he averaged 159 targets, 117 receptions, 1,393 receiving yards, and 11 receiving touchdowns per season. That is not a flash-in-the-pan profile; it is a floor built on target share and route running that shows up every year. In 2023 he saw 164 targets and turned them into 119 catches for 1,515 yards and 10 touchdowns. In 2024 he caught 115 of 141 targets for 1,263 yards and 12 scores. In 2025 he ran it back again: 172 targets, 117 catches, 1,401 yards, 11 touchdowns. Three straight seasons of 115-plus receptions and double-digit touchdowns is a rare kind of reliability. His draft value sits at +97.9 in a 12-team half-PPR format, and the rankings place him #10 overall and WR4, inside Tier 2.
What the model projects
The projection for St. Brown is 226.6 half-PPR fantasy points. That number sits against a three-year average of 159 targets and 117 receptions, so the projection is grounded in a workload that has proven durable. His draft value of +97.9 reflects how far above replacement level a WR4 with this kind of floor projects to be in a 12-team half-PPR league. The Tier 2 placement puts him in a group of players whose projected value is meaningfully separated from the tiers below.
| Tgt | Rec | Rec yds | Rec TD | Car | Rush yds | Fum | Half-PPR | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2023 | 164 | 119 | 1515 | 10 | 4 | 24 | 1 | 271.4 |
| 2024 | 141 | 115 | 1263 | 12 | 2 | 6 | 1 | 258.7 |
| 2025 | 172 | 117 | 1401 | 11 | 3 | 9 | 1 | 265.5 |
| 3-yr avg | 159 | 117 | 1393 | 11 | 3 | 13 | 1 | 266.4 |
The range of outcomes
The simulated season band for St. Brown runs from 149.2 points at the 10th percentile to 303.4 at the 90th percentile, with a median of 237.2. The 25th percentile lands at 192.0 and the 75th at 271.0. That spread tells you two things. First, even in a bad simulated season, bottom 10 percent, he still projects for 149.2 points, which reflects the durability his three-year track record supports. Second, the upside at the 90th percentile, 303.4 points, is genuine. The gap between the 10th and 90th percentile outcomes is 154.2 points, which is a meaningful range, but the distribution skews toward the upper half: the median of 237.2 sits closer to the 75th percentile than to the 25th. That shape rewards drafters who land him.
(bottom 10%)
(median)
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our projection
How to draft him
St. Brown's market ADP is 7.5, which translates to pick 1.07 in a 12-team snake draft, based on a median across two platforms. That means the market is taking him in the first round, seventh pick of the draft. If you hold a late first-round slot, he is a realistic target. If you pick earlier, you will likely need to decide between him and other first-round options before he comes back around. His bye week is Week 6, which is early enough that it should not factor heavily into draft-day decisions, but it is worth noting when setting your roster schedule. The projection is 226.6 points, the rank is #10 overall and WR4, and the floor at the 25th percentile is 192.0. Plan your first round accordingly.
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Questions drafters ask
He has seen 164, 141, and 172 targets in 2023, 2024, and 2025 respectively, for a three-year average of 159 targets per season. That volume has translated to a three-year average of 117 receptions and 1,393 receiving yards per year.
The projection is 226.6 half-PPR fantasy points. He ranks #10 overall and WR4, with a draft value of +97.9 above replacement level, placing him in Tier 2.
In simulated seasons, the 10th percentile outcome is 149.2 points (a bad season) and the 90th percentile is 303.4 points (a great season). The median simulated season lands at 237.2 points, and the 25th-to-75th percentile range runs from 192.0 to 271.0.
His market ADP is 7.5, which works out to pick 1.07 in a 12-team draft. The market is consistently taking him in the first round, so if you want him, budget a first-round pick. That ADP is drawn from a median across two platforms.
Practice it in a free mock draft →
Beyond the rankings
This page ranks the players. Nobody has ranked the people in your league.
Half your room drafts off a sheet like this one. The managers who cash every year aren't holding a better sheet; they have tendencies, and after enough seasons the tendencies are a book. Your league's own draft history is where it's written.
RotoAlpha reads it. Paste your past drafts, from any platform, and every manager in your league gets a profile: who reaches, who chases runs, who pays up for their own team. Then it sits with you on draft night with a plan that adapts pick by pick, knowing who is likely to reach next.
Names invented. Most long-running leagues have a table like this.