#12 overall · BAL · 206.1 projected half-PPR pts · +78.3 Draft Value · Market ADP 12.8
Derrick Henry — 2026 Fantasy Outlook
The case for drafting him
Three seasons, three years of elite volume. Derrick Henry has averaged 304 rush attempts and 1,561 rush yards per season from 2023 through 2025, with a three-year average of 14.7 rushing touchdowns. The 2024 season was his peak in this stretch: 325 carries, 1,921 rush yards, 16 rushing touchdowns, and 2 receiving touchdowns. He followed that with 307 carries, 1,595 rush yards, and 16 more rushing touchdowns in 2025. The workload has not dried up, and the touchdowns have been remarkably consistent. For a drafter who wants a high-floor, high-volume RB1, the production history here is as durable as it gets at the position.
What the model projects
The projection is 206.1 half-PPR fantasy points. Henry sits at #12 overall and RB8, placed in Tier 3. His draft value is +78.3, meaning he projects 78.3 points above the replacement-level running back in a 12-team half-PPR format. The projection reflects a back who is expected to carry the ball frequently, score in double digits, and contribute modestly in the passing game, consistent with his three-year averages of 20.7 receptions and 185.7 receiving yards per season. His bye week is 13.
| Car | Rush yds | Rush TD | Tgt | Rec | Rec yds | Rec TD | Fum | Half-PPR | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2023 | 280 | 1167 | 12 | 36 | 28 | 214 | — | — | 232.7 |
| 2024 | 325 | 1921 | 16 | 22 | 19 | 193 | 2 | 3 | 326.9 |
| 2025 | 307 | 1595 | 16 | 21 | 15 | 150 | — | 4 | 272.0 |
| 3-yr avg | 304 | 1561 | 14.7 | 26.3 | 20.7 | 185.7 | 0.7 | 2.3 | 280.4 |
The range of outcomes
The simulated season band is wide, which is the honest reality for any high-volume back. In the bottom 10% of simulated seasons, Henry finishes at 109.3 points. The 25th percentile is 160.8 points, still a usable RB2 floor. The median simulated season lands at 217.6 points, slightly above the point estimate of 206.1. The 75th percentile is 266.0 points, and the top 10% of simulated seasons reaches 299.2 points. The gap between the p10 and p90 outcomes is nearly 190 points, so the downside is real. His fumble history is worth noting: 3 fumbles and 1 lost in 2024, 4 fumbles and 3 lost in 2025. That is a live variable in any season projection.
(bottom 10%)
(median)
(top 10%)
our projection
How to draft him
The market is drafting Henry at an average pick of 12.8, which works out to pick 1 of Round 2 in a 12-team snake draft. His overall rank is #12 overall and his position rank is RB8. If you want him, the market is pricing him at the very top of the second round. Plan accordingly: in a standard snake draft, he will almost certainly be gone before your second-round pick arrives unless you are drafting from one of the first few slots. His Tier 3 placement and +78.3 draft value confirm he projects well above replacement level, so the decision is simply whether you are willing to commit a second-round pick to a running back with this profile.
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Questions drafters ask
He has averaged 304 rush attempts and 1,561 rush yards per season from 2023 through 2025. The individual season totals are 280 attempts and 1,167 yards in 2023, 325 attempts and 1,921 yards in 2024, and 307 attempts and 1,595 yards in 2025.
Very consistent on the ground: 12 rushing TDs in 2023, 16 in 2024, and 16 in 2025, for a three-year average of 14.7. His receiving role is limited but present: he has averaged 20.7 receptions, 185.7 receiving yards, and 26.3 targets per season over that same span.
The 10th-percentile simulated season lands at 109.3 half-PPR points. The 25th percentile is 160.8 points. His fumble totals have risen in recent seasons, 3 fumbles in 2024 and 4 in 2025, with 1 and 3 lost respectively, which is a factor in the lower end of the outcome band.
The market average is pick 12.8, which is pick 1 of Round 2 in a 12-team draft. If you are not drafting from one of the earliest slots, he is likely off the table before your second-round pick. Budget a second-round selection if he is your target.
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Beyond the rankings
This page ranks the players. Nobody has ranked the people in your league.
Half your room drafts off a sheet like this one. The managers who cash every year aren't holding a better sheet; they have tendencies, and after enough seasons the tendencies are a book. Your league's own draft history is where it's written.
RotoAlpha reads it. Paste your past drafts, from any platform, and every manager in your league gets a profile: who reaches, who chases runs, who pays up for their own team. Then it sits with you on draft night with a plan that adapts pick by pick, knowing who is likely to reach next.
Names invented. Most long-running leagues have a table like this.