#175 overall · SF · 71.0 projected half-PPR pts · -39.1 Draft Value
Kaelon Black — 2026 Fantasy Outlook
The case for drafting him
Kaelon Black is a San Francisco running back with a bye in Week 8. At RB45, he sits deep in the position rankings, and his Tier 9 placement reflects that. His projected 79.9 half-PPR points put him below replacement level for a 12-team half-PPR league, with a draft value of -47.4. The honest case for rostering him is roster-depth insurance late in a draft, not a featured role. If your draft strategy calls for loading up on higher-value positions early and filling the back end with upside fliers, Black is the kind of name that ends up on that list.
What the model projects
The projection is 79.9 half-PPR fantasy points. That is the point estimate for a full season. The median simulated season, at 76.3 points, sits close to that figure. His draft value of -47.4 places him #207 overall, below the replacement threshold at his position in a 12-team half-PPR format.
The range of outcomes
The simulated season band is wide. At the pessimistic end, the bottom 10% of outcomes land at 12.4 points, a near-zero fantasy contribution. The 25th percentile comes in at 36.1 points, still a thin return. The median is 76.3 points. Move up to the 75th percentile and the number climbs to 118.8, and the top 10% of outcomes reach 166.7 points. That upper tail is real. The gap between the 10th and 90th percentile outcomes is over 154 points, which signals a player whose season variance is high. Most outcomes cluster in the low-to-mid range, but the ceiling exists.
(bottom 10%)
(median)
(top 10%)
our projection
How to draft him
Market ADP has Black going at pick 160.7, which works out to round 14, pick 5 in a 12-team draft, based on a median across two platforms. That is late-draft territory. His #207 overall rank and RB45 position rank reflect a below-replacement projection, so this is a depth pick, not a core roster piece. If you want him, round 14 is when you would need to spend a pick to secure him. Given the wide outcome band, he fits best as a late-round stash rather than a player you count on from week one.
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Questions drafters ask
The projection is 79.9 half-PPR fantasy points, with a median simulated season of 76.3 points. His draft value is -47.4, placing him below replacement level at his position in a 12-team half-PPR format.
Market ADP has him at pick 160.7, or round 14, pick 5 in a 12-team draft, based on a median across two platforms. That is the point at which you would need to spend a pick to get him.
The top 10% of simulated seasons reach 166.7 half-PPR points, and the 75th percentile outcome is 118.8 points. The ceiling is real, though most simulated seasons land well below those figures.
Kaelon Black's bye is Week 8.
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Beyond the rankings
This page ranks the players. Nobody has ranked the people in your league.
Half your room drafts off a sheet like this one. The managers who cash every year aren't holding a better sheet; they have tendencies, and after enough seasons the tendencies are a book. Your league's own draft history is where it's written.
RotoAlpha reads it. Paste your past drafts, from any platform, and every manager in your league gets a profile: who reaches, who chases runs, who pays up for their own team. Then it sits with you on draft night with a plan that adapts pick by pick, knowing who is likely to reach next.
Names invented. Most long-running leagues have a table like this.