Dalton Kincaid — 2026 Fantasy Outlook

The case for drafting him

Dalton Kincaid's 2025 season showed a version of him that had not appeared before: five receiving touchdowns on just 49 targets. That touchdown rate is the most compelling number in his recent history, and it is the thread a drafter has to pull. His 2023 debut was the volume story, 91 targets and 73 receptions for 673 yards. His 2024 line pulled back to 75 targets, 44 receptions, and 448 yards. Then 2025 brought a further compression in volume, 49 targets and 39 receptions, yet the scoring output matched or exceeded both prior seasons. The three-year averages tell the fuller story: 71.7 targets, 52 receptions, 564 receiving yards, and 3 touchdowns per season. A drafter who believes the 2025 touchdown rate is sustainable, or even partially repeatable, has a real argument for Kincaid as a late-round TE with upside.

What the model projects

The projection is 91.2 half-PPR fantasy points. That sits below the median simulated season of 99.8 points, which is normal when a player's outcome distribution has a long upside tail pulling the median above the point estimate. Kincaid is TE18 and ranks #147 overall. His draft value is -28.5, placing him in Tier 9. At this tier and rank, the projection reflects a player operating below replacement level at the position in a 12-team half-PPR format. The bye is Week 7.

The range of outcomes

The outcome band is wide. At the pessimistic end, the bottom 10 percent of simulated seasons land at or below 38.6 points, a figure that represents a near-total loss of fantasy relevance. The 25th percentile is 66.4 points, still a difficult season to roster through. The median simulated season is 99.8 points. From there the upside opens up: the 75th percentile is 122.6 points and the top 10 percent of simulated seasons reach 151.0 points or better. That 151.0-point ceiling is a legitimate TE2 outcome in most leagues. The gap between the p10 and p90 is 112.4 points, which signals that Kincaid is a high-variance asset. The floor is real and the ceiling is real; drafters need to decide how much of each they can absorb at the position.

How to draft him

The market is drafting Kincaid at pick 119.0 on average, which works out to round 10, pick 11 in a 12-team draft. That is the window a drafter needs to plan around. If the goal is to land him, a pick in that range is the cost. His rank is #147 overall and TE18, so he is a depth option at the position rather than a starter in most formats. The practical use case is as a late-round flier on the 2025 touchdown rate, taken after the position's upper tiers are gone. His Week 7 bye is worth noting for lineup planning. Given the width of his outcome band, he fits best in a roster construction that already has a reliable TE in place.

At TE18 and #147 overall with a draft value of -28.5, the projection places him below replacement level at the position in a 12-team half-PPR format. His median simulated season is 99.8 points, which can work as a streamer or handcuff, but the floor is steep: the bottom 10 percent of simulated seasons land at or below 38.6 points. He is better suited as a backup TE than a primary starter.

The market ADP is 119.0, which translates to round 10, pick 11 in a 12-team draft. That is the pick range where he is currently being taken across public drafts.

Over the past three seasons his per-year averages are 71.7 targets, 52 receptions, 564 receiving yards, and 3 touchdowns. His 2023 season was his highest-volume year at 91 targets and 73 receptions. His 2025 season was his lowest-volume year at 49 targets and 39 receptions, but he posted a career-high 5 receiving touchdowns.

The top 10 percent of simulated seasons project at 151.0 half-PPR points or better, and the 75th percentile is 122.6 points. Those are outcomes driven largely by touchdown continuation from his 2025 season. The ceiling is real, but so is the floor: the 25th percentile is 66.4 points.