Calvin Ridley — 2026 Fantasy Outlook

The case for drafting him

Calvin Ridley has back-to-back seasons of 1,000-plus receiving yards on his resume. In 2023 he caught 76 passes for 1,016 yards and 8 touchdowns on 136 targets. In 2024 he followed with 64 receptions for 1,017 yards, 4 receiving touchdowns, and a rushing score on 120 targets. That is a receiver who has shown he can produce at volume when healthy and targeted. The three-year averages tell a more complete story: 97.3 targets, 52.3 receptions, 778.7 receiving yards, and 4 receiving touchdowns per season. There is a real production history here, and drafters who believe the 2025 line is a floor rather than a ceiling have a coherent argument to make.

What the model projects

The projection is 96.9 half-PPR fantasy points. That number sits at a draftValue of -32.3, placing Ridley at #159 overall and WR62. He is a Tier 9 player in these rankings. The projection reflects the full three-year picture, including a 2025 season in which he recorded 36 targets, 17 receptions, and 303 receiving yards. The median simulated season lands at 83.6 points, which is below the 96.9 point estimate, indicating the distribution is skewed by higher-end outcomes pulling the mean upward.

The range of outcomes

The outcome band is wide. At the pessimistic end, the bottom 10 percent of simulated seasons finish at 25.3 points, and the 25th percentile sits at 49.7. The median is 83.6. Move to the optimistic side and the 75th percentile reaches 119.4 points, with the top 10 percent of simulated seasons finishing at 168.2. That 168.2 figure represents a legitimate WR1 outcome. The gap between the p10 and p90 is nearly 143 points, which is a substantial spread. Ridley is a player whose season can look very different depending on which version shows up, and the 2025 stat line is the primary reason the floor sits as low as it does.

How to draft him

Ridley is ranked #159 overall and WR62 in these rankings, a Tier 9 player with a negative draftValue. The market is currently drafting him at an average of pick 194.5, which translates to round 17, pick 3 in a 12-team draft. That ADP is drawn from 2 platforms, so treat it as a directional signal rather than a settled consensus. At that draft slot, he is a late-round flier. His bye is Week 9. If you are building a roster that needs a high-variance late option at receiver, Ridley fits that profile. The upside is real; the floor is low. Draft him with eyes open on both ends of that band.

The 2025 season produced 36 targets, 17 receptions, and 303 receiving yards. That is a sharp drop from his 2023 and 2024 lines, both of which cleared 1,000 receiving yards. The projection of 96.9 points and a draftValue of -32.3 reflect all three seasons. He is WR62 in these rankings, so the model does not see him as a reliable starter. The case for drafting him rests on the p90 outcome of 168.2 points, which is a legitimate upside, but the p10 of 25.3 points shows how badly a bad season can go.

Market ADP has him at 194.5, which is round 17, pick 3 in a 12-team draft. That figure comes from 2 platforms, so it is a limited sample. In most drafts he is available in the final rounds, making him a low-cost late-round target rather than a pick that costs you meaningful draft capital.

Ridley scored 8 receiving touchdowns in 2023 and 4 in 2024, with no receiving touchdown total recorded for 2025. The three-year average is 4 receiving touchdowns and 0.3 rushing touchdowns per season. The 2023 touchdown total is the high-water mark and a key driver of the optimistic end of his outcome band.

The band runs from 25.3 points at the p10 to 168.2 at the p90, a spread of nearly 143 points. The median simulated season is 83.6 points. That width means Ridley is a high-variance option: in a good season he can return genuine WR1 value, and in a bad one he contributes almost nothing. He fits best as a late-round depth piece on a roster that can absorb the downside risk.