#106 overall · HOU · 152.6 projected half-PPR pts · -13.2 Draft Value
Ka'imi Fairbairn — 2026 Fantasy Outlook
The case for drafting him
Fairbairn has been one of the busiest kickers in the league over the past three seasons. In 2025 he attempted 48 field goals and converted 44, his most productive season in the three-year window. His 3-year averages back that volume up: 39.3 field goal attempts and 35.7 makes per season, with 28.7 extra point attempts and 27.7 conversions. The long-range work is real, too. He hit 9 field goals from 50-plus yards in 2025 and 13 in 2024, numbers that reflect a Houston offense that consistently puts him in position to score. For a kicker, volume and range are the two things that matter most, and the recent history shows both.
What the model projects
The projection is 159.5 half-PPR fantasy points for the 2026 season. That places Fairbairn at K4 and #117 overall, sitting in Tier 9. His draft value is -16.1, meaning the projection lands below replacement level at the kicker position in a 12-team half-PPR format. Houston's bye is Week 8.
| FG | FGM | XP | Half-PPR | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2023 | 27 | 1 | 21 | 113.0 |
| 2024 | 36 | 6 | 34 | 166.0 |
| 2025 | 44 | 3 | 28 | 191.0 |
| 3-yr avg | 35.7 | 3.3 | 27.7 | 24.4 |
The range of outcomes
The simulated season band runs from 126.6 points at the 10th percentile to 186.3 at the 90th. The median simulated season lands at 168.9 points, a touch above the 159.5 point estimate. The 25th percentile is 147.6 and the 75th is 179.7, so the bulk of outcomes cluster in a roughly 32-point window between those two marks. The downside scenario, bottom 10% of simulated seasons, is 126.6 points. The upside scenario, top 10%, is 186.3. That is a relatively tight band for a kicker, which reflects the consistency his three-year volume history supports.
(bottom 10%)
(median)
(top 10%)
our projection
How to draft him
The market is drafting Fairbairn at an average of pick 136.1, which works out to round 12, pick 4 in a 12-team snake draft. That ADP is drawn from 2 platforms, so treat it as a directional signal rather than a settled consensus. His rank is #117 overall and K4. Kickers are typically the last position filled, and Fairbairn fits that pattern. Plan to spend a late-round pick if you want him; the volume and range history make him a reasonable target at that stage of the draft.
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Questions drafters ask
His 3-year averages from 2023 through 2025 are 39.3 field goal attempts and 35.7 makes per season. In 2025 alone he attempted 48 and made 44, the high-water mark of that stretch.
He made 13 field goals from 50-plus yards in 2024 and 9 in 2025. In 2023 he made 5 from that distance. The long-range production has been a consistent part of his profile across all three seasons.
The projection is 159.5 half-PPR fantasy points. That ranks him K4 and #117 overall in Tier 9. His draft value of -16.1 puts him below replacement level at the kicker position in a 12-team half-PPR format.
The market ADP is 136.1, which translates to round 12, pick 4 in a 12-team snake draft. That figure comes from 2 platforms, so it is a directional read. If you want Fairbairn, a 12th-round pick is roughly what it costs.
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Beyond the rankings
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