#107 overall · LAC · 234.4 projected half-PPR pts · -13.4 Draft Value · Market ADP 97.4
Justin Herbert — 2026 Fantasy Outlook
The case for drafting him
Justin Herbert has been one of the more durable volume passers in the league over the past three seasons. He averaged 490.7 pass attempts, 3,577 pass yards, and 23 passing touchdowns per year from 2023 through 2025. His rushing contribution has grown each season: 228 rush yards in 2023, 306 in 2024, and 498 in 2025, with 83 rush attempts last year alone. That ground-level production adds a real floor to his fantasy line. The three-year average of 344 rush yards and 2.3 rush touchdowns per season is not a fluke of one outlier year. If you need a late-round QB who can contribute in multiple ways, Herbert's usage history gives you something to work with.
What the model projects
The projection is 239.4 half-PPR fantasy points for 2026. Herbert ranks QB15 at the position and #128 overall, placing him in Tier 9. His draft value sits at -21.5, meaning the projection lands below replacement level for the position in a 12-team half-PPR format. The headline number of 239.4 points is the point estimate; the median simulated season (p50) comes in at 227.5, a modest gap that reflects the distribution of outcomes around that estimate. His bye week is Week 7.
| Att | Comp | Pass yds | Pass TD | INT | Car | Rush yds | Rush TD | Fum | Half-PPR | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2023 | 456 | 297 | 3134 | 20 | 7 | 52 | 228 | 3 | 4 | 238.7 |
| 2024 | 504 | 332 | 3870 | 23 | 3 | 69 | 306 | 2 | 6 | 282.4 |
| 2025 | 512 | 340 | 3727 | 26 | 13 | 83 | 498 | 2 | 7 | 297.9 |
| 3-yr avg | 490.7 | 323 | 3577 | 23 | 7.7 | 68 | 344 | 2.3 | 5.7 | 276.1 |
The range of outcomes
The simulated outcome band is wide. At the low end, 10 percent of simulated seasons finish at or below 91.9 points, a number that reflects how badly a QB season can collapse. The 25th percentile is 168.9 points, still a difficult fantasy contribution. The median sits at 227.5. Things improve meaningfully in the upper half: the 75th percentile reaches 295.1 points and the 90th percentile hits 350.8. That top-decile outcome is a genuinely useful QB season. The spread from p10 to p90 spans nearly 259 points, which signals significant season-to-season variance. Herbert's 2025 interception total of 13 against just 26 touchdowns, compared to only 3 interceptions against 23 touchdowns in 2024, illustrates how differently his seasons can look from year to year. That historical volatility is consistent with the width of the band.
(bottom 10%)
(median)
(top 10%)
our projection
How to draft him
The market is currently taking Herbert at pick 91.1 on average, which works out to the 8th round, 7th pick in a 12-team draft (8.07). Our rankings place him at #128 overall and QB15. If you are running a late-QB strategy, Herbert is a name to track: the market is spending a mid-draft pick on him, so plan accordingly if he is your target. His negative draft value means the projection does not clear replacement level at the position, so the calculus depends on how you are building the rest of your roster. His Tier 9 placement reflects that reality. Draft him with eyes open: the upside in the band is real, but so is the downside, and the floor at the 10th percentile is low enough to matter.
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Questions drafters ask
It has grown each year: 228 rush yards on 52 attempts in 2023, 306 on 69 attempts in 2024, and 498 on 83 attempts in 2025. The three-year average is 344 rush yards and 68 rush attempts per season, with 2.3 rush touchdowns per year.
The projection is 239.4 half-PPR fantasy points. He ranks QB15 at the position and #128 overall in Tier 9. His draft value is -21.5, placing him below replacement level in a 12-team half-PPR format.
The band runs from 91.9 points at the 10th percentile to 350.8 at the 90th percentile. A bad season (bottom 10%) lands at or below 91.9 points. A typical season (p50) comes in at 227.5, and a strong season (top 10%) reaches 350.8.
The market ADP is 91.1, which translates to round 8, pick 7 in a 12-team draft (8.07), based on a median across 2 platforms. If Herbert is your target QB, that is the range where you would need to spend a pick to secure him.
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Beyond the rankings
This page ranks the players. Nobody has ranked the people in your league.
Half your room drafts off a sheet like this one. The managers who cash every year aren't holding a better sheet; they have tendencies, and after enough seasons the tendencies are a book. Your league's own draft history is where it's written.
RotoAlpha reads it. Paste your past drafts, from any platform, and every manager in your league gets a profile: who reaches, who chases runs, who pays up for their own team. Then it sits with you on draft night with a plan that adapts pick by pick, knowing who is likely to reach next.
Names invented. Most long-running leagues have a table like this.