#177 overall · DEN · 76.2 projected half-PPR pts · -39.6 Draft Value
Evan Engram — 2026 Fantasy Outlook
The case for drafting him
Evan Engram's 2023 season is the anchor for any optimistic take: 143 targets, 114 receptions, 963 receiving yards, and 4 touchdowns. That kind of volume at tight end is rare, and it establishes a ceiling that is worth keeping in mind. Now with Denver, he brings proven target-absorption ability to a new situation. The three-year average across 2023-2025 still shows 94.3 targets and 70.3 receptions per season, which reflects a player who, when healthy and featured, can generate meaningful half-PPR production. If the Denver offense leans on him as a primary outlet, the 2023 blueprint is the upside case.
What the model projects
The projection is 74.7 half-PPR fantasy points. That sits below replacement level at the position, reflected in a draft value of -47.6. Engram is ranked TE24 and #192 overall, placing him in Tier 9. The median simulated season lands at 79.3 points, slightly above the point estimate, which signals a distribution that skews modestly upward. The projection is what it is: a below-replacement baseline in a 12-team half-PPR format.
| Tgt | Rec | Rec yds | Rec TD | Fum | Half-PPR | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2023 | 143 | 114 | 963 | 4 | 3 | 173.3 |
| 2024 | 64 | 47 | 365 | 1 | 1 | 64.0 |
| 2025 | 76 | 50 | 461 | 1 | — | 77.8 |
| 3-yr avg | 94.3 | 70.3 | 596.3 | 2 | 1.3 | 107.0 |
The range of outcomes
The outcome band is wide, and that width is the defining feature of Engram's profile. At the pessimistic end, the p10 is 27.5 points, a near-zero fantasy season. The p25 sits at 50.0 points. The median is 79.3. Move to the optimistic side and the p75 reaches 102.8 points, with the p90 at 133.4. That top-decile outcome is more than four times the bottom-decile figure. The 2024 season (365 yards, 47 receptions, 1 touchdown on 64 targets) and the 2025 season (461 yards, 50 receptions, 1 touchdown on 76 targets) illustrate how far the floor can drop from the 2023 peak. The three-year average of 2.0 receiving touchdowns per season also underscores how little touchdown production has been consistent outside that 2023 outlier.
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our projection
How to draft him
Engram does not have a market ADP across public 2026 drafts, which means he is not being selected consistently enough to register a median draft position. In practice, that makes him a late-round or undrafted option in most leagues. At TE24 and #192 overall in Tier 9, the model places him firmly in the below-replacement tier. He is a speculative add for a drafter who has already secured a reliable tight end and wants a high-variance lottery ticket on a return to 2023-level volume. His bye is Week 10, worth noting if roster depth is thin.
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Questions drafters ask
The model projects him at 74.7 half-PPR points with a draft value of -47.6, placing him at TE24 and #192 overall in Tier 9. That is a below-replacement projection, so building your starting tight end slot around him carries real risk. The p10 outcome is just 27.5 points, meaning a near-empty season is a live possibility.
The three-year picture (2023-2025) averages 94.3 targets, 70.3 receptions, 596.3 receiving yards, and 2.0 receiving touchdowns per season. However, those averages are heavily influenced by 2023 (143 targets, 114 receptions, 963 yards, 4 TDs). The 2024 and 2025 seasons each produced 64 and 76 targets respectively, with 1 touchdown in each year.
Very wide. The simulated season band runs from 27.5 points at the p10 to 133.4 points at the p90. The p90 outcome is more than four times the p10, which reflects significant season-to-season variance in his recent history.
Engram has no market ADP in public 2026 drafts, meaning he is not being selected consistently enough across platforms to produce a median draft position. He is effectively an undrafted or deep late-round option in most leagues right now.
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Beyond the rankings
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