#113 overall · MIN · 93.9 projected half-PPR pts · -16.3 Draft Value · Market ADP 100.6
Jordan Mason — 2026 Fantasy Outlook
The case for drafting him
Jordan Mason arrives in Minnesota with three seasons of NFL carry volume on his resume. In 2024 he logged 153 rush attempts for 789 yards and 3 touchdowns, then followed that in 2025 with 159 attempts, 758 yards, and a career-high 6 rushing touchdowns. His receiving work has grown steadily as well: 14 receptions on 16 targets for 51 yards in 2025, up from 11 receptions on 14 targets the year before. Over the three-year aggregate he has averaged 117.3 rush attempts, 584.3 rushing yards, 9.3 receptions, and 4 rushing touchdowns per season. The touchdown rate in 2025 is the clearest reason to pay attention. Six rushing scores on 159 attempts is a legitimate workload, and the receiving usage, while modest, has been consistent and trending upward.
What the model projects
The projection is 94.1 half-PPR fantasy points, which places Mason at RB39 and #163 overall. His draft value is -34.7, meaning the projection sits below replacement level at the running back position in a 12-team half-PPR format. He lands in Tier 9. The point estimate of 94.1 is close to the band median of 93.6, so the projection and the typical simulated season are well aligned.
| Car | Rush yds | Rush TD | Tgt | Rec | Rec yds | Fum | Half-PPR | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2023 | 40 | 206 | 3 | 4 | 3 | 31 | — | 43.2 |
| 2024 | 153 | 789 | 3 | 14 | 11 | 91 | 3 | 109.5 |
| 2025 | 159 | 758 | 6 | 16 | 14 | 51 | 3 | 121.9 |
| 3-yr avg | 117.3 | 584.3 | 4 | 11.3 | 9.3 | 57.7 | 2 | 92.9 |
The range of outcomes
The outcome band is wide, which is the defining feature of Mason's profile. In a bottom-10% simulated season he finishes at 21.1 points. The 25th percentile is 49.5 points. The median sits at 93.6 points. The 75th percentile reaches 137.0 points, and a top-10% season lands at 184.0 points. That is a spread of roughly 163 points from the 10th to the 90th percentile. The upside at p90 is meaningful for a player projected at this level, but the downside at p10 is severe. Drafters targeting Mason are accepting a high-variance outcome, not a stable floor.
(bottom 10%)
(median)
(top 10%)
our projection
How to draft him
Mason's market ADP is 103.0, which works out to pick 9.07 in a 12-team snake draft, based on a median across two platforms. The model ranks him #163 overall and RB39. His bye week is 6. At his ADP, he is a late-round flier whose value depends almost entirely on the high end of that outcome band materializing. Given the negative draft value and the steep downside in the band, he fits best as a depth add rather than a foundational piece of a roster.
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Questions drafters ask
In 2024 he carried 153 times for 789 yards and 3 touchdowns. In 2025 he carried 159 times for 758 yards and 6 touchdowns. His three-year average is 117.3 rush attempts and 584.3 rushing yards per season.
The 90th-percentile simulated outcome is 184.0 half-PPR points. The 75th percentile is 137.0 points. Those are the top-end scenarios the band captures.
His market ADP is 103.0, which translates to pick 9.07 in a 12-team draft. That median is drawn from two platforms, so treat it as a directional signal rather than a precise number.
Yes, modestly. He caught 14 of 16 targets for 51 yards in 2025, and 11 of 14 targets for 91 yards in 2024. His three-year average is 9.3 receptions and 11.3 targets per season, so he is a limited but consistent part of the passing game.
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Beyond the rankings
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