#111 overall · SF · 231.7 projected half-PPR pts · -16.1 Draft Value
Brock Purdy — 2026 Fantasy Outlook
The case for drafting him
Purdy's 2023 season is the ceiling exhibit: 4,280 passing yards, 31 passing touchdowns, and a 308-of-444 completion line that translated into genuine fantasy production. The rushing dimension has grown, too. He went from 39 carries and 144 yards in 2023 to 66 carries and 323 yards in 2024, and the three-year average sits at 46 rush attempts and 204.7 rush yards per season. That dual-threat floor matters in half-PPR formats. Over the last three seasons he has averaged 23.7 passing touchdowns and 3.3 rushing touchdowns per year, which is a consistent touchdown-production profile. A drafter who wants a QB with a proven high-end season on record and a growing ground game has a real argument here.
What the model projects
The projection is 249.1 half-PPR fantasy points. That places Purdy at #104 overall and QB9 in Tier 9. His draft value is -12.2, meaning the projection sits below replacement level at the quarterback position in a 12-team half-PPR format. The three-year averages that feed into this picture: 3,437 passing yards, 268.3 completions on 394.3 attempts, 23.7 passing touchdowns, 11 interceptions, and 7 fumbles per season. The 2025 stat line was notably lighter across the board: 2,167 passing yards, 197 completions on 284 attempts, and 20 passing touchdowns in what was a reduced sample.
| Att | Comp | Pass yds | Pass TD | INT | Car | Rush yds | Rush TD | Fum | Half-PPR | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2023 | 444 | 308 | 4280 | 31 | 11 | 39 | 144 | 2 | 6 | 306.6 |
| 2024 | 455 | 300 | 3864 | 20 | 12 | 66 | 323 | 5 | 7 | 278.9 |
| 2025 | 284 | 197 | 2167 | 20 | 10 | 33 | 147 | 3 | 3 | 185.4 |
| 3-yr avg | 394.3 | 268.3 | 3437 | 23.7 | 11 | 46 | 204.7 | 3.3 | 5.3 | 261.5 |
The range of outcomes
The simulated season band is wide. At the 10th percentile, Purdy finishes at 98.1 points, a number that reflects how badly a poor season can go at this position. The 25th percentile is 179.9 points and the median simulated season lands at 239.2 points, a touch below the 249.1 point estimate. The 75th percentile reaches 305.7 points and the 90th percentile tops out at 360.0 points. That 261.9-point spread between the 10th and 90th percentile outcomes is the honest picture of the variance a drafter is accepting. The upside is real; so is the floor risk.
(bottom 10%)
(median)
(top 10%)
our projection
How to draft him
The market is drafting Purdy at an ADP of 107.1, which works out to pick 9.11 in a 12-team snake draft. That is a late-ninth-round pick. The model has him at #104 overall and QB9. A drafter running a late-round quarterback strategy will find Purdy in the range where that approach typically executes. His bye is Week 8, worth noting for roster planning. Given the negative draft value, the case for spending an earlier pick on him is thin; the late-round window is where this one makes the most sense to revisit.
Practice it in a free mock draft →
Questions drafters ask
The projection is 249.1 half-PPR fantasy points. He ranks QB9 and #104 overall, placed in Tier 9, with a draft value of -12.2.
His rushing has grown year over year: 39 carries for 144 yards in 2023, 66 carries for 323 yards in 2024, and 33 carries for 147 yards in 2025. The three-year average is 46 rush attempts and 204.7 rush yards per season, plus 3.3 rushing touchdowns per year.
The market ADP is 107.1, which is pick 9.11 in a 12-team snake draft. That is where other drafters are spending to get him, so plan to use a late-ninth-round pick if he is your target.
The 10th-percentile simulated outcome is 98.1 points, and the 25th percentile is 179.9 points. The 2025 season, which produced only 2,167 passing yards and 284 attempts, is a concrete recent data point for what a reduced Purdy season looks like.
Practice it in a free mock draft →
Beyond the rankings
This page ranks the players. Nobody has ranked the people in your league.
Half your room drafts off a sheet like this one. The managers who cash every year aren't holding a better sheet; they have tendencies, and after enough seasons the tendencies are a book. Your league's own draft history is where it's written.
RotoAlpha reads it. Paste your past drafts, from any platform, and every manager in your league gets a profile: who reaches, who chases runs, who pays up for their own team. Then it sits with you on draft night with a plan that adapts pick by pick, knowing who is likely to reach next.
Names invented. Most long-running leagues have a table like this.