#276 overall · TB · 51.7 projected half-PPR pts · -63.6 Draft Value
Jalen McMillan — 2026 Fantasy Outlook
The case for drafting him
The 2024 season is the data point that keeps McMillan relevant in deep-league conversations. He caught 37 of 58 targets for 461 yards and eight receiving touchdowns, adding 43 rush yards on four carries. Eight scores on a 58-target season is a high-efficiency outcome, and that kind of touchdown rate is the thread a speculative drafter pulls on. He is a Tampa Bay receiver with a demonstrated ability to find the end zone, and in deep formats that is enough to warrant a roster spot.
What the model projects
The projection is 51.7 half-PPR fantasy points. That sits below replacement level at the position: the draft value is -77.5, placing McMillan at WR95 and #281 overall in Tier 9. The 2025 season produced only 12 receptions, 15 targets, and 178 receiving yards with no touchdowns recorded, and the three-year average across 2023-2025 settles at 24.5 receptions, 36.5 targets, 319.5 receiving yards, and 4 receiving touchdowns per season. The projection reflects that full body of work, not the 2024 peak alone.
| Tgt | Rec | Rec yds | Rec TD | Car | Rush yds | Half-PPR | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024 | 58 | 37 | 461 | 8 | 4 | 43 | 116.9 |
| 2025 | 15 | 12 | 178 | — | 1 | 1 | 23.9 |
| 3-yr avg | 36.5 | 24.5 | 319.5 | 4 | 2.5 | 22 | 70.4 |
The range of outcomes
The outcome band is wide. The 10th-percentile simulated season lands at 0.9 points, meaning a near-zero contribution is a real possibility. The 25th percentile is 13.7 points and the median is 33.6 points, both well below the 51.7 point estimate, which signals the distribution is right-skewed. The 75th percentile reaches 66.4 points and the 90th percentile climbs to 108.1 points. That top-decile outcome is the scenario where the 2024 touchdown efficiency reasserts itself. The floor is essentially nothing; the ceiling is a low-end fantasy contributor. Drafters should size their expectations accordingly.
(bottom 10%)
(median)
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our projection
How to draft him
McMillan is not being drafted consistently enough across platforms to carry a market ADP, so there is no pick cost to plan around. He is a Tier 9 asset at WR95 and #281 overall, which means he belongs at the very back end of deep-league rosters or on a watch list for waiver-wire purposes. His bye is Week 10. If a roster spot is available in the final rounds of a deep draft, the 2024 touchdown upside makes him a reasonable flier, but the three-year averages and the 2025 stat line make clear that the 2024 season was the exception, not the baseline.
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Questions drafters ask
At WR95 and #281 overall with a draft value of -77.5, he projects below replacement level. He is a deep-league-only option, best suited for the final rounds of a 14- or 16-team draft or as a waiver target.
The three-year average from 2023-2025 is 4 receiving touchdowns per season, and the 2025 season produced zero. The eight touchdowns in 2024 are part of the historical record but the aggregate and the most recent season both point to a lower baseline.
The 90th-percentile simulated season is 108.1 points, which represents a low-end fantasy contributor in a great year. The median is 33.6 points and the 10th percentile is 0.9 points, so the range skews heavily toward limited production with a defined but modest ceiling.
He saw 15 targets in 2025 versus 58 in 2024, a sharp drop. Receptions fell from 37 to 12 and receiving yards from 461 to 178 over the same span.
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Beyond the rankings
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