#85 overall · DEN · 244.4 projected half-PPR pts · -3.4 Draft Value
Bo Nix — 2026 Fantasy Outlook
The case for drafting him
Bo Nix has back-to-back seasons of legitimate volume under center. In 2024 he threw 567 attempts for 3,775 yards and 29 touchdowns against 12 interceptions, adding 430 rush yards and 4 rushing scores on 92 carries. In 2025 the volume grew: 612 attempts, 3,931 passing yards, 25 passing touchdowns, 5 rushing touchdowns, and 356 rush yards on 83 carries. The three-year averages confirm a consistent floor: 589.5 attempts, 3,853 passing yards, 27 passing touchdowns, and 4.5 rushing touchdowns per season. That rushing contribution is real and repeatable across both full seasons on record. For a drafter who needs a late-round quarterback, Nix offers a two-year track record of high-attempt passing volume paired with a credible rushing floor.
What the model projects
The projection is 240.8 half-PPR fantasy points. Nix sits at QB14 and #126 overall, placed in Tier 9. His draft value is -20.6, meaning the projection lands below replacement level at the quarterback position in a 12-team half-PPR format. The median simulated season (p50) comes in at 228.4 points, slightly below the point estimate of 240.8. His bye week is Week 10.
| Att | Comp | Pass yds | Pass TD | INT | Car | Rush yds | Rush TD | Fum | Half-PPR | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024 | 567 | 376 | 3775 | 29 | 12 | 92 | 430 | 4 | 2 | 328.7 |
| 2025 | 612 | 388 | 3931 | 25 | 11 | 83 | 356 | 5 | 4 | 307.8 |
| 3-yr avg | 589.5 | 382 | 3853 | 27 | 11.5 | 87.5 | 393 | 4.5 | 3 | 320.3 |
The range of outcomes
The outcome band is wide. At the pessimistic end, 10% of simulated seasons finish at or below 92.0 points (p10), and the 25th percentile sits at 169.2 points (p25). The median is 228.4 points (p50). On the upside, the 75th percentile reaches 297.0 points (p75) and the top 10% of simulated seasons finish at or above 353.7 points (p90). That is a spread of more than 260 points between the p10 and p90, which reflects meaningful season-to-season variance. The 2025 season showed 11 interceptions and 4 fumbles (2 lost), consistent with the three-year average of 11.5 interceptions per season, and that turnover rate is a real driver of the downside tail.
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our projection
How to draft him
Market ADP has Nix going at pick 114.3, which translates to round 10, pick 6 in a 12-team draft (median across 2 platforms). The model ranks him #126 overall and QB14. A drafter who wants him should plan to spend a pick in the round-10 range if current market behavior holds. At that stage of the draft, the question is whether his two-season rushing floor and high-attempt volume make him a viable streaming or backup option. His negative draft value signals that the projection sits below replacement level, so the calculus depends on roster construction and how many quarterbacks the drafter intends to carry.
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Questions drafters ask
The model projects him at 240.8 points and ranks him QB14 with a draft value of -20.6, which is below replacement level in a 12-team half-PPR format. He is a viable late-round option, but the projection places him outside the range where he profiles as a reliable weekly starter.
It is consistent but not dominant. He posted 430 rush yards and 4 rushing touchdowns in 2024, then 356 rush yards and 5 rushing touchdowns in 2025. The three-year average is 393 rush yards and 4.5 rushing touchdowns per season, which provides a real floor that pure pocket passers at this tier do not carry.
The downside is real. He averaged 11.5 interceptions per season over the three-year window, and in 2025 he added 4 fumbles with 2 lost. The p10 outcome band sits at just 92.0 points, meaning roughly one in ten simulated seasons produces a near-worthless fantasy year. That variance is the primary risk factor.
Market ADP puts him at pick 114.3, or round 10, pick 6 in a 12-team draft (based on a 2-platform median). If you want him, that is the range where you would need to spend a pick under current drafting patterns.
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Beyond the rankings
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