#950 overall · CIN · 40.6 projected half-PPR pts · -207.2 Draft Value
Jake Browning — 2026 Fantasy Outlook
The case for drafting him
The case is narrow but real. Browning has shown he can function as a starter in Cincinnati's offense: in 2023 he completed 171 of 243 passes for 1,936 yards, threw 12 touchdown passes, and added 127 rushing yards and 3 rushing touchdowns on 27 carries. That is a legitimate stat line for a backup elevated into a starting role. The 2025 season was considerably thinner, 81 completions on 125 attempts for 771 yards, 6 passing touchdowns, and 8 interceptions, but the volume was there in limited action. For a drafter who needs a deep-roster emergency option, Browning's 2023 precedent is the argument.
What the model projects
The projection is 40.6 half-PPR fantasy points for the season. His draft value sits at -220.3, placing him QB46 and #950 overall in Tier 9. Those numbers reflect a player who projects well below replacement level at the quarterback position in a 12-team half-PPR format. The median simulated season lands at 6.7 points.
| Att | Comp | Pass yds | Pass TD | INT | Car | Rush yds | Rush TD | Fum | Half-PPR | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2023 | 243 | 171 | 1936 | 12 | 7 | 27 | 127 | 3 | 3 | 148.9 |
| 2024 | — | — | — | — | — | 2 | -2 | — | — | -0.2 |
| 2025 | 125 | 81 | 771 | 6 | 8 | 9 | 39 | 1 | 1 | 56.7 |
| 3-yr avg | 122.7 | 84 | 902.3 | 6 | 5 | 12.7 | 54.7 | 1.3 | 1.3 | 68.3 |
The range of outcomes
The outcome band is wide and skewed heavily toward the low end. The bottom 10 percent of simulated seasons finishes at 0.0 points; the 25th percentile is 1.3 points; the median is 6.7 points; the 75th percentile reaches 31.0 points. Only at the 90th percentile does the projection climb to 92.0 points. The three-year averages tell a similar story: 84 completions, 902.3 passing yards, 6 passing touchdowns, and 5 interceptions per season across 2023 through 2025. The upside exists, but it requires a specific set of circumstances to materialize, and most simulated seasons end well short of it.
(bottom 10%)
(median)
(top 10%)
our projection
How to draft him
Market ADP is unavailable, meaning Browning is not being drafted consistently enough across platforms to produce a reliable average pick number. In practice, he is a free agent in most drafts. There is no pick cost to budget for him; the question is simply whether your roster has a slot for a deep emergency quarterback. His 2023 season is the ceiling. His 2025 line and his -220.3 draft value are the baseline. Roster him only if your league's roster rules make a third quarterback worth carrying.
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Questions drafters ask
The projection is 40.6 points with a draft value of -220.3, placing him QB46 and #950 overall in Tier 9. He projects well below replacement level. He is not worth a pick in most formats unless your roster rules specifically reward carrying a deep backup quarterback.
His 2023 season is the clearest data point: 1,936 passing yards, 12 passing touchdowns, 7 interceptions, and 127 rushing yards with 3 rushing touchdowns on 27 carries. His 2025 line was 771 passing yards, 6 touchdowns, and 8 interceptions on 125 attempts. The 90th-percentile simulated season lands at 92.0 fantasy points, so even the optimistic outcome is modest.
Market ADP is unavailable. He is not being drafted consistently enough across platforms to produce a median pick number. In most drafts he goes undrafted entirely.
Very. The outcome band runs from 0.0 points at the 10th percentile to 92.0 at the 90th percentile, with a median of just 6.7. His three-year averages across 2023 through 2025 show 84 completions, 902.3 passing yards, and 5 interceptions per season, reflecting a player whose workload has varied sharply from year to year.
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Beyond the rankings
This page ranks the players. Nobody has ranked the people in your league.
Half your room drafts off a sheet like this one. The managers who cash every year aren't holding a better sheet; they have tendencies, and after enough seasons the tendencies are a book. Your league's own draft history is where it's written.
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Names invented. Most long-running leagues have a table like this.