#948 overall · MIN · 44.2 projected half-PPR pts · -203.6 Draft Value
Carson Wentz — 2026 Fantasy Outlook
The case for drafting him
The case is thin, and the facts say so plainly. Carson Wentz is QB44 on MIN's roster heading into 2026, ranked #947 overall with a draft value of -217.1. That negative figure means the projection sits well below replacement level at the quarterback position in a 12-team half-PPR format. His most active recent season, 2025, produced 1,216 passing yards, 110 completions on 169 attempts, 6 passing touchdowns, 5 interceptions, and 3 fumbles across a partial workload. The three-year averages tell a similar story: 499 passing yards, 46.3 completions, 2.7 passing touchdowns, and 2.0 interceptions per season. There is no volume here that builds a fantasy case at this stage.
What the model projects
The projection is 44.2 half-PPR fantasy points for the season. That is the headline number, and it reflects a limited expected role. Wentz sits in Tier 9, the deepest tier in these rankings, at QB44. A draft value of -217.1 confirms the projection falls significantly below what a replacement-level quarterback would be expected to contribute in this format.
| Att | Comp | Pass yds | Pass TD | INT | Car | Rush yds | Rush TD | Fum | Half-PPR | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2023 | 24 | 17 | 163 | 2 | 1 | 17 | 56 | 1 | — | 25.1 |
| 2024 | 19 | 12 | 118 | — | — | 3 | — | — | — | 4.7 |
| 2025 | 169 | 110 | 1216 | 6 | 5 | 11 | 57 | — | 3 | 73.3 |
| 3-yr avg | 70.7 | 46.3 | 499 | 2.7 | 2 | 10.3 | 37.7 | 0.3 | 1 | 34.3 |
The range of outcomes
The outcome band is wide and skewed heavily toward the low end. The p10 is 0.0 points, meaning the bottom 10 percent of simulated seasons produce nothing at all. The p25 is 3.1 points and the median simulated season lands at just 9.3 points. The p75 reaches 37.9 and the p90 climbs to 99.3, which represents the ceiling in a top-10-percent outcome. That gap between the median and the p90 is substantial, but the weight of the distribution sits far below the p50 threshold. Most simulated seasons end with fewer than 10 fantasy points on the year.
(bottom 10%)
(median)
(top 10%)
our projection
How to draft him
Wentz does not have a market ADP across public 2026 drafts, which means he is not being consistently drafted on the platforms that feed this data. At QB44 and #947 overall, he belongs at the very back of any queue. In most 12-team snake drafts he will go undrafted entirely, and the projection supports that outcome. If a deep-league format or a roster-stashing situation creates a reason to add him, he is a late-waiver-wire name, not a pick worth spending in any meaningful round.
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Questions drafters ask
The numbers say no. He projects for 44.2 fantasy points on the season, ranks QB44 and #947 overall, and carries a draft value of -217.1, which places him well below replacement level. He has no market ADP, meaning he is not being consistently drafted in public 2026 drafts.
His most complete recent season, 2025, produced 1,216 passing yards, 110 completions on 169 attempts, 6 passing touchdowns, 5 interceptions, and 3 fumbles. The three-year average from 2023 to 2025 is 499 passing yards, 46.3 completions, and 2.7 passing touchdowns per season, all across limited workloads.
The p90 outcome, the top 10 percent of simulated seasons, reaches 99.3 half-PPR fantasy points. The median simulated season is 9.3 points, and the p25 is 3.1, so that upside scenario requires a significant departure from the most likely outcomes.
He has no market ADP, so there is no consistent draft slot to reference. At QB44 and #947 overall, he is not a player to spend a pick on in a standard 12-team draft. He is a potential waiver addition only if circumstances create a need.
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Beyond the rankings
This page ranks the players. Nobody has ranked the people in your league.
Half your room drafts off a sheet like this one. The managers who cash every year aren't holding a better sheet; they have tendencies, and after enough seasons the tendencies are a book. Your league's own draft history is where it's written.
RotoAlpha reads it. Paste your past drafts, from any platform, and every manager in your league gets a profile: who reaches, who chases runs, who pays up for their own team. Then it sits with you on draft night with a plan that adapts pick by pick, knowing who is likely to reach next.
Names invented. Most long-running leagues have a table like this.