#947 overall · WAS · 53.4 projected half-PPR pts · -194.3 Draft Value
Marcus Mariota — 2026 Fantasy Outlook
The case for drafting him
The case is thin, and the facts say so plainly. Mariota's most active recent season came in 2025, when he threw for 1,695 yards and 10 touchdowns on 227 attempts while adding 297 rushing yards and a rushing score on 50 carries. That is a legitimate full-season workload, and it is the clearest evidence that he can hold a starting job and contribute across both passing and rushing. The three-year aggregate tells a more complicated story: 741 passing yards, 5 passing touchdowns, and 147 rushing yards per season on average, reflecting two prior campaigns with very limited action. The 2025 line is the one that matters most for projecting forward, and it at least establishes a floor of real NFL production.
What the model projects
The projection is 53.4 half-PPR fantasy points for the season. Mariota sits at QB43 and #913 overall, placed in Tier 9. His draft value is -207.0, meaning the projection lands well below replacement level at the quarterback position in a 12-team half-PPR format. His bye week is Week 7.
| Att | Comp | Pass yds | Pass TD | INT | Car | Rush yds | Rush TD | Fum | Half-PPR | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2023 | 23 | 15 | 164 | 1 | 1 | 8 | 52 | — | 1 | 12.8 |
| 2024 | 44 | 34 | 364 | 4 | — | 18 | 92 | 1 | — | 45.8 |
| 2025 | 227 | 139 | 1695 | 10 | 7 | 50 | 297 | 1 | 6 | 130.5 |
| 3-yr avg | 98 | 62.7 | 741 | 5 | 2.7 | 25.3 | 147 | 0.7 | 2.3 | 65.8 |
The range of outcomes
The simulated outcome band is wide and skewed heavily toward the low end. The p10 is 0.0 points, meaning in the worst 10% of simulated seasons he scores nothing at all. The p25 is 7.9 points and the median (p50) is just 16.3 points. The band does not open up meaningfully until the upper end: the p75 is 56.3 points and the p90 reaches 117.5. That shape tells you most simulated seasons cluster near zero, with a long tail of outcomes where he contributes meaningfully. The gap between the median and the p90 is over 100 points, which reflects genuine uncertainty about whether he sees the field at all in a given season.
(bottom 10%)
(median)
(top 10%)
our projection
How to draft him
Mariota is not being drafted consistently enough across platforms to carry a market ADP. In practical terms, he is a free agent in most drafts. At QB43 and #913 overall with a -207.0 draft value, he belongs at the very back of any queue, taken only as a deep handcuff or emergency stash in leagues that require multiple quarterbacks. His Week 7 bye is worth noting for roster management if he does end up on your team. Do not spend a meaningful pick to get here.
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Questions drafters ask
The numbers say no. He projects at 53.4 points, ranks QB43, and carries a draft value of -207.0, which is well below replacement level. He is not being drafted consistently enough to have a market ADP. He is a deep-bench emergency option at best.
In 2025 he completed 139 of 227 pass attempts for 1,695 yards, 10 passing touchdowns, and 7 interceptions. He also carried 50 times for 297 yards and 1 rushing touchdown, with 6 fumbles and 3 lost. That is his most productive recent season by a wide margin.
Extremely. The simulated outcome band runs from 0.0 points at the p10 to 117.5 at the p90, with a median of just 16.3. Most simulated seasons land near zero, and the upside tail is real but narrow. That spread reflects deep uncertainty about his role and playing time.
Mariota has no market ADP, meaning he is not being consistently drafted across platforms. In most drafts he goes undrafted entirely, so there is no pick cost to plan around.
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Beyond the rankings
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Half your room drafts off a sheet like this one. The managers who cash every year aren't holding a better sheet; they have tendencies, and after enough seasons the tendencies are a book. Your league's own draft history is where it's written.
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Names invented. Most long-running leagues have a table like this.