#294 overall · BUF · 45.9 projected half-PPR pts · -69.3 Draft Value
Greg Dortch — 2026 Fantasy Outlook
The case for drafting him
Greg Dortch has been a consistent presence in Buffalo's offense across three seasons, averaging 41.3 targets, 30 receptions, and 276 receiving yards per year from 2023 through 2025. He has also contributed on the ground, averaging 4.3 rush attempts and 17 rush yards per season over that same stretch. The touchdowns have been real: 2.7 receiving touchdowns per year on average, plus 0.3 rush touchdowns, giving him a modest but genuine multi-dimensional role. In 2024 he posted career highs of 50 targets, 37 receptions, 342 receiving yards, and 3 receiving touchdowns. In 2025 he added a rushing score to go with 3 more receiving touchdowns on just 33 targets. The role is limited, but it has been durable and it has produced points in each of the last three seasons.
What the model projects
The projection for Dortch is 45.9 half-PPR fantasy points this season. His draft value sits at -82.7, placing him #301 overall and WR101 in Tier 9. Those numbers reflect a player operating well below replacement level at the wide receiver position in a 12-team half-PPR format. The projection is modest, consistent with a role that has averaged 41.3 targets per season rather than a featured workload.
| Tgt | Rec | Rec yds | Rec TD | Car | Rush yds | Rush TD | Fum | Half-PPR | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2023 | 41 | 24 | 280 | 2 | 1 | 5 | — | — | 52.5 |
| 2024 | 50 | 37 | 342 | 3 | 5 | 31 | — | 2 | 71.8 |
| 2025 | 33 | 29 | 206 | 3 | 7 | 15 | 1 | — | 60.6 |
| 3-yr avg | 41.3 | 30 | 276 | 2.7 | 4.3 | 17 | 0.3 | 0.7 | 62.3 |
The range of outcomes
The outcome band is wide relative to the projection, which is itself a signal about how variable this role can be. The median simulated season lands at 28.1 points, below the 45.9 point estimate. The bottom 10 percent of simulated seasons produces 0.0 points, and the 25th percentile is just 10.3. On the upside, the 75th percentile reaches 60.3 points and the top 10 percent of simulated seasons hits 99.8. That ceiling is real but requires things to break right. The floor is a complete non-factor. Drafters should treat the median of 28.1 as the honest baseline and the 99.8 as the best-case scenario, not the expectation. His bye week falls in Week 7.
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our projection
How to draft him
Dortch is not being drafted consistently enough across platforms to carry a market ADP, so there is no pick cost to anchor to. He is a Tier 9 player ranked #301 overall and WR101. At that level he is a late-round or post-draft addition, the kind of roster spot you fill after your core is set. His three-year track record of 2.7 receiving touchdowns per season and a 2025 line that included a rushing score gives him a floor as a touchdown-dependent flier. If you are building a deep roster and need a wide receiver with a demonstrated role and some touchdown upside, Dortch fits that profile. Do not expect him to contribute in a typical week; expect him to be available when you need a streaming option.
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Questions drafters ask
He has logged 41, 50, and 33 targets across the last three seasons, averaging 41.3 per year. That is a limited but recurring role, not a one-off. He has also scored at least 2 receiving touchdowns in each of those three seasons, with a rushing touchdown added in 2025.
The 90th-percentile simulated season produces 99.8 half-PPR points. That is the top-10-percent outcome. The 75th percentile is 60.3 points. Both require above-average luck relative to his typical role.
The 10th-percentile simulated season is 0.0 points and the 25th percentile is 10.3. The floor is essentially zero fantasy value. The median simulated season is 28.1 points, which is the more honest baseline for planning purposes.
Dortch does not have a market ADP, meaning he is not being drafted consistently enough across platforms to establish one. He is available as a free agent or a final-round pick in most drafts. His rank is #301 overall and WR101.
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Beyond the rankings
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