#292 overall · BUF · 46.9 projected half-PPR pts · -68.4 Draft Value
Joshua Palmer — 2026 Fantasy Outlook
The case for drafting him
Joshua Palmer is a Buffalo wide receiver with three seasons of NFL production on record. In 2023 and 2024 he posted back-to-back years of 38-39 receptions, 581-584 receiving yards, and 61-65 targets, showing a consistent floor as a volume-light but reliable option. The three-year averages bear that out: 54.3 targets, 33 receptions, 489.3 receiving yards, and 1 receiving touchdown per season. He is a known commodity in a high-powered offense, and that context is the core of whatever case exists for rostering him.
What the model projects
The projection for Palmer is 46.9 half-PPR fantasy points this season. His draft value is -82.4, placing him #299 overall and WR99 in Tier 9. Those numbers reflect a player sitting well below replacement level at his position in a 12-team half-PPR format. The projection is the headline figure; the band tells a more complete story.
| Tgt | Rec | Rec yds | Rec TD | Car | Rush yds | Fum | Half-PPR | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2023 | 61 | 38 | 581 | 2 | 1 | 6 | 1 | 87.7 |
| 2024 | 65 | 39 | 584 | 1 | — | — | — | 83.9 |
| 2025 | 37 | 22 | 303 | — | — | — | — | 41.3 |
| 3-yr avg | 54.3 | 33 | 489.3 | 1 | 0.3 | 2 | 0.3 | 71.6 |
The range of outcomes
The simulated season band is wide and skewed. The bottom 10% of outcomes lands at 0.0 points, and the 25th percentile is just 10.9. The median simulated season comes in at 29.0 points. From there the upside opens up: the 75th percentile is 61.4 points and the 90th percentile reaches 101.2. That shape, a floor near zero and a ceiling just above 100, describes a player whose fantasy relevance is almost entirely contingent on things breaking right. Most simulated seasons cluster well below the 46.9 point projection; the mean is pulled up by a relatively small number of high-end outcomes.
(bottom 10%)
(median)
(top 10%)
our projection
How to draft him
Palmer does not have a market ADP across public 2026 drafts, which means he is not being drafted consistently enough on major platforms to produce one. At #299 overall and WR99 in Tier 9, he sits in territory where roster spots are scarce and the projected value is negative relative to replacement level. In most 12-team formats he is a late-waiver-wire name rather than a draft-day target. If a roster spot opens at the very end of a deep draft and the upside band is appealing, the 90th-percentile outcome of 101.2 points is the scenario a drafter would be betting on. That is a low-probability path, and the numbers say so plainly.
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Questions drafters ask
He averaged 54.3 targets, 33 receptions, 489.3 receiving yards, and 1 receiving touchdown per season across 2023-2025. His two fuller seasons (2023 and 2024) each produced 38-39 catches on 61-65 targets for roughly 580 yards. His 2025 line was 22 receptions on 37 targets for 303 yards.
The projection is 46.9 half-PPR fantasy points. His draft value is -82.4, ranking him #299 overall and WR99 in Tier 9 of the 12-team half-PPR rankings.
The band runs from 0.0 points at the 10th percentile to 101.2 at the 90th. The median simulated season is 29.0 points, and the 75th percentile is 61.4. Most simulated seasons finish well below the 46.9 projection; the upper end of the range is real but represents a minority of outcomes.
Palmer has no market ADP in public 2026 drafts, meaning he is not being selected consistently enough across platforms to generate one. At WR99 and #299 overall with a negative draft value, he projects below replacement level and is not a player the rankings support spending a meaningful pick on in a standard 12-team format.
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Beyond the rankings
This page ranks the players. Nobody has ranked the people in your league.
Half your room drafts off a sheet like this one. The managers who cash every year aren't holding a better sheet; they have tendencies, and after enough seasons the tendencies are a book. Your league's own draft history is where it's written.
RotoAlpha reads it. Paste your past drafts, from any platform, and every manager in your league gets a profile: who reaches, who chases runs, who pays up for their own team. Then it sits with you on draft night with a plan that adapts pick by pick, knowing who is likely to reach next.
Names invented. Most long-running leagues have a table like this.