Eli Stowers — 2026 Fantasy Outlook

The case for drafting him

Eli Stowers is a Philadelphia Eagle at tight end, and that is about where the straightforward part of his case ends. At TE38 and #268 overall, the numbers are not flattering, and a draftValue of -75.0 puts him below replacement level at his position. The honest case for rostering him is not about his current projection; it is about the upside tail. His p90 outcome lands at 103.8 half-PPR points, which means roughly one in ten simulated seasons produces a genuinely usable fantasy contributor. For a drafter willing to stash a late flier on a roster spot, that ceiling is the argument. Nothing more, nothing less.

What the model projects

The projection is 47.3 half-PPR points for the season. That is the headline number, and it sits in Tier 9 of the overall rankings. His draftValue of -75.0 reflects a finish below the replacement-level baseline for tight ends in a 12-team half-PPR format. The median simulated season, at 45.3 points, tracks closely with the point estimate, confirming this is a low-floor, low-ceiling projection at the center of the distribution. Philadelphia's bye falls in Week 10.

The range of outcomes

The outcome band is wide relative to the projection, which is the most notable thing about Stowers's profile. The p10 floor is 9.3 points, a near-zero fantasy season. The p25 sits at 22.9 and the p75 at 69.9, so the interquartile range already spans nearly 47 points. Push to the p90 and the number jumps to 103.8, more than double the point estimate. That kind of spread signals high variance: most seasons cluster near the low end, but the distribution has a meaningful right tail. Drafters should treat the 47.3 projection as the most likely outcome and the 103.8 ceiling as a low-probability scenario, not a base case.

How to draft him

Stowers does not have a market ADP across public 2026 drafts, which means he is not being selected consistently enough to register a median draft position. In a standard 12-team snake draft, he is effectively an undrafted free agent. If you want him on your roster, a late-round flier or a post-draft waiver claim is the realistic path. Given his draftValue of -75.0 and his TE38 rank, he belongs at the very back of a draft queue, if he belongs there at all. The only scenario worth targeting him is if your roster construction leaves a final spot open for a high-variance stash with a legitimate upside tail.

The projection is 47.3 points and his draftValue is -75.0, placing him below replacement level at TE38 and #268 overall. He is a Tier 9 player with a p50 of 45.3 points. He is only worth a roster spot as a late-round or undrafted stash if you have a spare spot and are chasing his p90 ceiling of 103.8 points.

His p90 outcome is 103.8 half-PPR points, meaning roughly 10% of simulated seasons reach that level. His p75 is 69.9 points. The point estimate is 47.3, so the high-end outcomes represent a meaningful jump from the base case, but they are low-probability by definition.

Stowers has no market ADP in 2026 public drafts, so he is not being consistently selected. He is effectively available as an undrafted free agent. If you pursue him at all, it should be only after all meaningful positional needs are addressed.

His p10 outcome is 9.3 half-PPR points, representing the bottom 10% of simulated seasons. His p25 is 22.9 points. The downside is a near-total fantasy non-factor, which is consistent with his below-replacement draftValue of -75.0.