#240 overall · CAR · 57.8 projected half-PPR pts · -57.9 Draft Value
Darren Waller — 2026 Fantasy Outlook
The case for drafting him
Darren Waller lands in Carolina as a veteran tight end with a proven receiving floor. His 2023 season showed what a full workload looks like: 74 targets, 52 receptions, and 552 receiving yards. The 2025 season was a reduced role in volume terms, but he turned 34 targets into 6 receiving touchdowns, a rate that kept his fantasy relevance alive. Over the three-year window from 2023 through 2025, he averaged 54 targets, 38 receptions, and 3.5 receiving touchdowns per season. The touchdown upside is real and documented.
What the model projects
The projection is 56.9 half-PPR fantasy points for the 2026 season. The median simulated season lands at 57.2 points, essentially in line with that figure. His draft value is -62.8, placing him #241 overall and TE33. He sits in Tier 9. At this tier and rank, the projection reflects a player operating below replacement level at the tight end position in a 12-team half-PPR format.
| Tgt | Rec | Rec yds | Rec TD | Half-PPR | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2023 | 74 | 52 | 552 | 1 | 87.2 |
| 2025 | 34 | 24 | 283 | 6 | 76.7 |
| 3-yr avg | 54 | 38 | 417.5 | 3.5 | 82.0 |
The range of outcomes
The outcome band is wide. At the pessimistic end, the bottom 10% of simulated seasons finish at or below 15.7 points, a near-zero fantasy contribution. The 25th percentile sits at 32.4 points, still a thin return. The median is 57.2 points. The 75th percentile reaches 81.4 points, and the top 10% of simulated seasons finish at or above 114.1 points. That upper tail is meaningful: a season near the 90th percentile would represent genuine fantasy value. The gap between the floor and ceiling here is among the widest in the band, which means the outcome depends heavily on which version of Waller shows up. His 2025 touchdown rate points toward the upside scenario; his 2025 target share points toward the floor.
(bottom 10%)
(median)
(top 10%)
our projection
How to draft him
Waller does not have a market ADP across public 2026 drafts, which means he is not being drafted consistently enough to generate one. In practical terms, he is a late-flier or waiver-wire candidate rather than a pick you need to plan around. At TE33 and #241 overall, he belongs at the very back of a draft if he appears at all. His value proposition is entirely contingent on the high end of his outcome band materializing. If you are carrying a starter at tight end and want a speculative second option, his touchdown upside from 2025 gives a reason to take a final-round shot. Do not spend a meaningful pick to get there. His bye is Week 5, so plan your roster depth accordingly.
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Questions drafters ask
He is TE33 and #241 overall with a draft value of -62.8, meaning the projection puts him below replacement level at tight end in a 12-team half-PPR format. He has no consistent market ADP. The case for drafting him rests entirely on his 90th-percentile outcome of 114.1 points, which is a real ceiling, but the median projection is only 56.9 points.
In 2023 he posted 74 targets, 52 receptions, 552 receiving yards, and 1 touchdown. In 2025 his volume dropped to 34 targets, 24 receptions, and 283 receiving yards, but he scored 6 touchdowns. The three-year average from 2023 through 2025 is 54 targets, 38 receptions, 417.5 receiving yards, and 3.5 touchdowns per season.
Very wide. The bottom 10% of simulated seasons finish at or below 15.7 points; the top 10% finish at or above 114.1 points. The 25th percentile is 32.4 points and the 75th is 81.4 points. The median simulated season is 57.2 points, close to the 56.9-point projection.
He has no market ADP, so there is no consistent draft slot to plan around. He is a back-of-draft or undrafted option. His rank is #241 overall and TE33, so if you take him at all, it should be in the final rounds of a draft after your roster is otherwise set. Note his bye is Week 5.
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Beyond the rankings
This page ranks the players. Nobody has ranked the people in your league.
Half your room drafts off a sheet like this one. The managers who cash every year aren't holding a better sheet; they have tendencies, and after enough seasons the tendencies are a book. Your league's own draft history is where it's written.
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Names invented. Most long-running leagues have a table like this.