#17 overall · ATL · 191.7 projected half-PPR pts · +62.9 Draft Value · Market ADP 17.9
Drake London — 2026 Fantasy Outlook
The case for drafting him
Drake London has been Atlanta's unambiguous target anchor for three seasons running. His 2024 season was the clearest statement yet: 158 targets, 100 receptions, 1,271 receiving yards, and 9 touchdowns. That target volume — the highest of his three-year stretch — reflects a role that goes well beyond a complementary piece. His three-year average of 126.7 targets per season confirms this is not a one-year spike. The touchdown production has also climbed, from 2 in 2023 to 9 in 2024, with 7 in 2025 keeping that range intact. At WR7 with a draftValue of +62.9, London sits comfortably above replacement level at the position. Tier 4 is where his clustering lands across all positions, and #17 overall is the rank his surplus earns him.
What the model projects
The projection for London is 191.7 half-PPR fantasy points. That sits modestly below his 2024 actual output, which reflected a career-best target and reception season, and slightly above his 2025 line. His three-year averages — 79 receptions, 1,031.7 receiving yards, 6 touchdowns, on 126.7 targets — form the foundation the projection is built on. The draftValue of +62.9 places him at #17 overall and WR7. His bye week is 11.
| Tgt | Rec | Rec yds | Rec TD | Car | Rush yds | Fum | Half-PPR | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2023 | 110 | 69 | 905 | 2 | — | — | — | 137.9 |
| 2024 | 158 | 100 | 1271 | 9 | 1 | -3 | — | 230.8 |
| 2025 | 112 | 68 | 919 | 7 | — | — | 1 | 165.9 |
| 3-yr avg | 126.7 | 79 | 1031.7 | 6 | 0.3 | -1 | 0.3 | 178.9 |
The range of outcomes
The simulated season band for London runs from 114.3 points at the 10th percentile to 268.5 at the 90th. The median simulated season lands at 202.3 points, a touch above the 191.7 point estimate. The 25th percentile is 157.1 and the 75th is 236.1, giving the middle half of outcomes a spread of roughly 79 points. The downside scenario at p10 reflects a season closer to his 2023 line — 905 yards, 2 touchdowns — while the upside at p90 implies a step beyond even his 2024 peak. The width of that band is consistent with a high-volume receiver whose touchdown rate can shift the final number meaningfully in either direction.
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our projection
How to draft him
London's market ADP is 17.9, drawn from two platforms, which translates to pick 2.06 in a 12-team snake draft. That means you are spending a second-round pick to land the player ranked #17 overall and WR7 by draftValue. Plan accordingly: if you are not in a position to take him in the second round, the market data suggests he will not be available much later. His bye in Week 11 is worth noting for roster management, but it should not factor into the draft decision itself.
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Questions drafters ask
Over the past three seasons London has averaged 126.7 targets per year. His 2024 season was the peak at 158 targets, and 2025 came in at 112. The three-year floor was 110 in 2023, so even in his lightest season he was a high-volume option.
London scored 2 receiving touchdowns in 2023, 9 in 2024, and 7 in 2025. His three-year average is 6 per season. The 2023 number is the clear outlier low; the 2024 and 2025 figures bracket a more representative range.
His market ADP is 17.9 across two platforms, which works out to pick 2.06 in a 12-team draft. If you want London, the second round is when you have to spend the pick.
The 10th-percentile simulated season lands at 114.3 half-PPR points. For context, his 2023 season — 905 yards and 2 touchdowns on 110 targets — was his weakest recent campaign. The band's low end reflects that kind of outcome, not a total collapse.
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Beyond the rankings
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Half your room drafts off a sheet like this one. The managers who cash every year aren't holding a better sheet; they have tendencies, and after enough seasons the tendencies are a book. Your league's own draft history is where it's written.
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