#15 overall · DAL · 197.6 projected half-PPR pts · +68.8 Draft Value · Market ADP 11.8
CeeDee Lamb — 2026 Fantasy Outlook
The case for drafting him
CeeDee Lamb's 2023 season is the anchor. He pulled in 135 receptions on 181 targets for 1,749 receiving yards and 12 receiving touchdowns, adding 14 rush attempts, 113 rush yards, and 2 rushing scores. That is a complete wide receiver workload, and it happened. The three-year averages tell a similar story: 150 targets, 103.7 receptions, 1,340 receiving yards, and 7 receiving touchdowns per season. The volume has been there consistently enough that even the down years still represent a meaningful target share. His draftValue sits at +68.8, meaning the projection puts him well above replacement level at the position. He lands at WR6 and #15 overall, inside Tier 3 of the rankings. The floor is real, the ceiling is documented, and the usage history supports both.
What the model projects
The projection is 197.6 half-PPR fantasy points for the 2026 season. That number reflects a receiver who has averaged 150 targets per season over the past three years and has demonstrated the ability to convert volume into production at a high rate. His draftValue of +68.8 places him at WR6 and #15 overall. Note his bye week: Week 14. In deeper playoff formats, that is a week that can cost a team a postseason game, and it is worth accounting for when building a roster.
| Tgt | Rec | Rec yds | Rec TD | Car | Rush yds | Rush TD | Fum | Half-PPR | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2023 | 181 | 135 | 1749 | 12 | 14 | 113 | 2 | 3 | 333.7 |
| 2024 | 152 | 101 | 1194 | 6 | 14 | 70 | — | 1 | 210.9 |
| 2025 | 117 | 75 | 1077 | 3 | 1 | 2 | — | — | 163.4 |
| 3-yr avg | 150 | 103.7 | 1340 | 7 | 9.7 | 61.7 | 0.7 | 1.3 | 238.2 |
The range of outcomes
The simulated season band runs from 120.1 points at the 10th percentile to 274.4 at the 90th percentile. The median simulated season lands at 208.2 points, slightly above the 197.6 point projection. The 25th percentile is 162.9 and the 75th is 242.1, so the middle half of outcomes spans roughly 79 points. The low end of that band is real: his 2025 season produced 1,077 receiving yards, 75 receptions on 117 targets, and just 3 receiving touchdowns, a meaningful step back from his 2023 peak. The 2024 line was also quieter than 2023, with 1,194 yards, 101 catches, and 6 scores. The upside, though, is grounded in a season that already happened. A drafter buying Lamb is accepting a wide band in exchange for a ceiling that the historical record confirms is achievable.
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our projection
How to draft him
The market is taking Lamb at an average draft position of 11.8, which works out to pick 1.12 in a 12-team snake draft, based on a median across two platforms. That is the final pick of the first round. The model has him at #15 overall and WR6. A drafter who wants him should be prepared to spend a late first-round pick. Given the wide outcome band, pairing him with a second wide receiver early in the draft is a reasonable way to manage the variance. His Week 14 bye is also worth noting at the roster-construction stage.
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Questions drafters ask
Over the past three seasons he has averaged 150 targets, 103.7 receptions, 1,340 receiving yards, and 7 receiving touchdowns per year. His 2023 peak was 181 targets, 135 catches, 1,749 yards, and 12 receiving scores. His 2024 and 2025 lines were quieter: 152 targets and 6 TDs in 2024, then 117 targets, 75 catches, 1,077 yards, and 3 TDs in 2025.
The projection is 197.6 half-PPR fantasy points. That gives him a draftValue of +68.8, placing him at WR6 and #15 overall in Tier 3 of the rankings.
The simulated season band runs from 120.1 points at the 10th percentile to 274.4 at the 90th. The median simulated season is 208.2 points. The middle half of outcomes falls between 162.9 and 242.1, a spread of roughly 79 points, which reflects meaningful season-to-season variance.
The market is taking him at an average of pick 11.8, which is pick 1.12 in a 12-team draft, based on a median across two platforms. Plan to spend a late first-round selection if you want him on your roster.
Practice it in a free mock draft →
Beyond the rankings
This page ranks the players. Nobody has ranked the people in your league.
Half your room drafts off a sheet like this one. The managers who cash every year aren't holding a better sheet; they have tendencies, and after enough seasons the tendencies are a book. Your league's own draft history is where it's written.
RotoAlpha reads it. Paste your past drafts, from any platform, and every manager in your league gets a profile: who reaches, who chases runs, who pays up for their own team. Then it sits with you on draft night with a plan that adapts pick by pick, knowing who is likely to reach next.
Names invented. Most long-running leagues have a table like this.