#16 overall · LV · 191.7 projected half-PPR pts · +64.3 Draft Value · Market ADP 19.9
Ashton Jeanty — 2026 Fantasy Outlook
The case for drafting him
One NFL season is all the record holds for Ashton Jeanty, and that season is a complete data set. In 2025 he logged 266 rush attempts for 975 yards and 5 rushing touchdowns, while adding 55 receptions on 73 targets for 346 receiving yards and 5 more scores. The receiving volume is notable: 73 targets is a workload that keeps a back relevant even in weeks where the ground game stalls. The fumble ledger is clean enough, with 2 fumbles and only 1 lost. The aggregate three-year window matches the single-season line exactly, which means every carry and every catch in the database belongs to 2025. There is no prior NFL history to dilute the picture. What you see is what you are projecting forward.
What the model projects
The projection is 191.7 half-PPR fantasy points. That output produces a draft value of +64.3 points above replacement, placing Jeanty at RB10 and #16 overall in Tier 4. The point estimate sits below the median simulated season of 203.2, which reflects the shape of the distribution rather than any contradiction in the numbers. Both figures are worth keeping in mind: the 191.7 projection is the headline, and the 203.2 median describes where a typical simulated season lands.
| Car | Rush yds | Rush TD | Tgt | Rec | Rec yds | Rec TD | Fum | Half-PPR | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025 | 266 | 975 | 5 | 73 | 55 | 346 | 5 | 2 | 217.6 |
| 3-yr avg | 266 | 975 | 5 | 73 | 55 | 346 | 5 | 2 | 219.6 |
The range of outcomes
The simulated outcome band is wide. At the pessimistic end, the bottom 10 percent of seasons finish at or below 94.9 points. The 25th percentile is 146.4 points, and the median sits at 203.2. Moving up the band, the 75th percentile reaches 251.6 points and the top 10 percent of seasons come in at or above 284.8. That is a spread of roughly 190 points between the floor and the ceiling, which signals meaningful variance. A drafter who lands the upside scenario gets a back approaching 285 points; a drafter who hits the floor scenario gets fewer than 95. The receiving role, reflected in those 73 targets, is the clearest path to the upper end of the band. Note the Week 13 bye when setting lineup expectations.
(bottom 10%)
(median)
(top 10%)
our projection
How to draft him
Jeanty sits at #16 overall and RB10 in Tier 4. The market is currently taking him at pick 19.9, which works out to the 8th pick of the 2nd round in a 12-team draft. That is the window a drafter needs to plan around. In a standard snake draft, if Jeanty is a target, the pick commitment comes in the second round. The +64.3 draft value confirms he projects above replacement at the position, and the Tier 4 placement gives context for how the rankings cluster around him. Build your draft plan with a second-round pick earmarked if he is on your list.
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Questions drafters ask
He saw 73 targets and caught 55 of them for 346 yards and 5 receiving touchdowns. That target share gives him a floor in PPR formats even when the rushing volume dips.
The market ADP is 19.9, which translates to the 8th pick of the 2nd round in a 12-team snake draft. Plan to spend a second-round pick if he is on your list.
The top 10 percent of simulated seasons finish at or above 284.8 half-PPR points. The 75th percentile is 251.6 points. The floor, at the 10th percentile, is 94.9 points, so the range is genuinely wide.
Yes. The three-year aggregate window covers 2023 through 2025, and the numbers match the 2025 single-season line exactly: 266 rush attempts, 975 rush yards, 5 rushing touchdowns, 55 receptions, 346 receiving yards, and 5 receiving touchdowns. All recorded NFL production comes from that one season.
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Beyond the rankings
This page ranks the players. Nobody has ranked the people in your league.
Half your room drafts off a sheet like this one. The managers who cash every year aren't holding a better sheet; they have tendencies, and after enough seasons the tendencies are a book. Your league's own draft history is where it's written.
RotoAlpha reads it. Paste your past drafts, from any platform, and every manager in your league gets a profile: who reaches, who chases runs, who pays up for their own team. Then it sits with you on draft night with a plan that adapts pick by pick, knowing who is likely to reach next.
Names invented. Most long-running leagues have a table like this.