#266 overall · PHI · 52.6 projected half-PPR pts · -62.6 Draft Value
Dontayvion Wicks — 2026 Fantasy Outlook
The case for drafting him
Dontayvion Wicks has posted three consecutive seasons of at least 39 receptions, and his target volume has been consistent enough to keep him relevant in deeper formats. His 2024 season produced 76 targets, 39 receptions, 415 receiving yards, and 5 touchdowns, the latter being his best scoring output across the three years on record. The three-year averages tell a similar story: 60 targets, 36 receptions, 442.7 receiving yards, and 3.7 receiving touchdowns per season. Now with Philadelphia, he enters a new offensive environment. For a drafter working the late rounds of a 12-team snake draft, Wicks is the kind of receiver who can fill a roster spot with a realistic path to double-digit touchdowns in a good year.
What the model projects
The projection for Wicks is 86.1 half-PPR fantasy points this season. His draft value sits at -43.2, placing him #192 overall and WR74 in Tier 9. Those numbers reflect a player who projects below replacement level at the wide receiver position in a 12-team half-PPR format. The projection is the headline number; the median simulated season, at 68.0 points, runs somewhat below it, which signals that the point estimate is pulled upward by higher-end outcome scenarios.
| Tgt | Rec | Rec yds | Rec TD | Car | Rush yds | Fum | Half-PPR | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2023 | 58 | 39 | 581 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 100.3 |
| 2024 | 76 | 39 | 415 | 5 | — | — | — | 91.0 |
| 2025 | 46 | 30 | 332 | 2 | 1 | 6 | — | 60.8 |
| 3-yr avg | 60 | 36 | 442.7 | 3.7 | 0.7 | 2.3 | 1 | 84.9 |
The range of outcomes
The outcome band for Wicks is wide. At the bottom 10% of simulated seasons, he finishes at 15.6 points, essentially a non-factor. The 25th percentile lands at 36.3 points, still a minimal fantasy contribution. The median simulated season is 68.0 points. From there the upside opens up: the 75th percentile reaches 104.2 points, and the top 10% of simulated seasons produces 156.4 points, a figure that would make him a genuine weekly starter. That spread from 15.6 to 156.4 is among the widest variance profiles a drafter will encounter at this range, which means Wicks is a high-variance late-round dart rather than a reliable floor play. His 2023 season included 3 fumbles and 1 fumble lost, a detail worth noting when weighing the downside.
(bottom 10%)
(median)
(top 10%)
our projection
How to draft him
Wicks is being drafted at an average pick of 182.4 across two platforms, which works out to pick 2 of Round 16 in a 12-team snake draft. His bye is Week 10. At that draft slot, he is a depth or stash pick, not a starter. The wide outcome band means the upside is real but far from guaranteed, so drafters should roster him only after their starting lineup and primary depth are secured. He is a name to target in the final rounds if you want a receiver with a credible path to a breakout season at minimal cost.
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Questions drafters ask
His projection of 86.1 points and a draft value of -43.2 put him at #192 overall and WR74 in Tier 9, below replacement level for the position. He is a late-round depth option, not a player to count on as a starter.
The top 10% of simulated seasons produces 156.4 points, and the 75th percentile reaches 104.2. Those are legitimate fantasy-relevant totals. His 2024 season included 5 receiving touchdowns on 76 targets, so the scoring upside has historical backing.
The market ADP is 182.4, or pick 2 of Round 16 in a 12-team draft, based on a median across two platforms. If you want him, that is roughly when you need to spend the pick.
The 10th-percentile simulated season is just 15.6 points for the full year. His 2025 line was 46 targets, 30 receptions, 332 yards, and 2 touchdowns, and his 2023 season included 3 fumbles. The floor is low, and the outcome band is wide.
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Beyond the rankings
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