#264 overall · CIN · 47.8 projected half-PPR pts · -62.4 Draft Value
Samaje Perine — 2026 Fantasy Outlook
The case for drafting him
Samaje Perine has shown three distinct seasons of NFL production, and the through-line is durability as a complementary back. In 2023 he caught 50 passes on 56 targets for 455 receiving yards, demonstrating genuine pass-game utility. In 2025 the profile shifted toward the ground game: 84 rush attempts, 382 rushing yards, and 3 rushing touchdowns. The three-year averages tell the story of a back who contributes in multiple ways, 52.3 rush attempts, 37.3 targets, and 31.7 receptions per season. For a drafter who needs late-roster depth at Cincinnati, Perine is a known commodity with a real NFL role.
What the model projects
The projection is 48.4 half-PPR fantasy points for 2026. Perine carries a draft value of -80.0, placing him #292 overall and RB64 in Tier 9. Those numbers reflect a back projected below replacement level at the position in a 12-team half-PPR format. The point estimate is the headline; the distribution around it is wide, and the median simulated season lands at 31.7 points. His bye week is Week 6.
| Car | Rush yds | Rush TD | Tgt | Rec | Rec yds | Rec TD | Fum | Half-PPR | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2023 | 53 | 238 | 1 | 56 | 50 | 455 | — | 3 | 96.3 |
| 2024 | 20 | 92 | 1 | 35 | 28 | 322 | 1 | — | 67.4 |
| 2025 | 84 | 382 | 3 | 21 | 17 | 87 | — | 3 | 69.4 |
| 3-yr avg | 52.3 | 237.3 | 1.7 | 37.3 | 31.7 | 288 | 0.3 | 2 | 80.4 |
The range of outcomes
The outcome band is unusually wide relative to the point estimate. At the pessimistic end, 10% of simulated seasons finish at or below 0.3 points, and the 25th percentile sits at just 10.8. The median simulated season is 31.7 points. Move to the optimistic side and the picture changes sharply: the 75th percentile reaches 72.3 points, and the top 10% of simulated seasons land at or above 109.1. That spread from 0.3 to 109.1 captures a back whose role can expand or contract significantly. The fumble history is worth noting: Perine has logged 3 fumbles in both 2023 and 2025, losing 2 each of those seasons, which is a real floor risk embedded in that lower band.
(bottom 10%)
(median)
(top 10%)
our projection
How to draft him
Perine has no market ADP available, meaning he is not being drafted consistently enough across public platforms to produce a reliable median pick number. In practice, that makes him a free agent on most draft days. At RB64 and #292 overall in Tier 9, he belongs at the very back end of rosters, taken only if a drafter wants a handcuff or a speculative depth piece in Cincinnati. His ceiling in the top 10% of outcomes is real, but the base case is a player projecting below replacement level. Roster him accordingly.
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Questions drafters ask
The projection is 48.4 half-PPR fantasy points. He ranks #292 overall and RB64, placing him in Tier 9 with a draft value of -80.0.
The band runs from 0.3 points at the 10th percentile to 109.1 at the 90th percentile. The median simulated season is 31.7 points and the 75th percentile is 72.3, so the upside is real but the floor is extremely low.
There is no market ADP available for Perine, which means he is not being drafted consistently enough across public platforms to have one. He is effectively undrafted in most leagues.
It is a documented pattern. Perine fumbled 3 times in 2023 and 3 times in 2025, losing 2 each of those seasons. Over the three-year aggregate that works out to 2 fumbles per season, which is a real floor risk and a factor in the wide downside of his outcome band.
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Beyond the rankings
This page ranks the players. Nobody has ranked the people in your league.
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