#267 overall · CAR · 83.0 projected half-PPR pts · -62.8 Draft Value
Carolina Panthers — 2026 Fantasy Outlook
The case for drafting him
There is not a strong one. The Carolina Panthers DST sits at DST32 and #242 overall, placing them in Tier 9 with a draft value of -62.8. That negative figure means the projection lands well below replacement level at the position in a 12-team half-PPR format. The pass-rush numbers have been serviceable over three seasons, averaging 29.7 sacks per year from 2023 through 2025, and the 2025 interception total of 15 was a genuine spike from the 8 and 9 recorded in the two prior years. The 2025 points-allowed figure of 380 was also the lowest of the three-year window. Those are real data points. They are not, however, enough to move the needle at the bottom of the rankings.
What the model projects
The projection is 83.0 half-PPR fantasy points for the season. The draft value is -62.8, meaning the Panthers DST projects 62.8 points below the replacement-level baseline for the position in this format. The three-year averages tell the broader story: 29.7 sacks, 10.7 interceptions, 5.7 fumbles recovered, 7.3 fumbles forced, and 443.3 points allowed per season. The 2024 season was the roughest stretch in that window, with 534 points allowed and six games surrendering 35 or more points. The 2025 season showed improvement in several categories, but the projection reflects the full picture across all three years.
| Sacks | INT | FF | FR | TD | PA | PA 0 | PA 1-6 | PA 7-13 | PA 14-20 | PA 21-27 | PA 28-34 | PA 35+ | Half-PPR | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2023 | 27 | 8 | 5 | 3 | 3 | 416 | — | — | 3 | 3 | 5 | 3 | 3 | 72.0 |
| 2024 | 32 | 9 | 8 | 8 | — | 534 | — | — | — | 1 | 5 | 5 | 6 | 46.0 |
| 2025 | 30 | 15 | 9 | 6 | 2 | 380 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 5 | 6 | 1 | 2 | 110.0 |
| 3-yr avg | 29.7 | 10.7 | 7.3 | 5.7 | 1.7 | 443.3 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | 80.0 |
The range of outcomes
The Panthers DST carries a bye in Week 5, which is a scheduling consideration worth noting for roster management. The 2025 interception total of 15 is the most encouraging recent data point; if that turnover rate holds, the floor rises. The concern is the points-allowed history. In 2024, six games saw opponents score 35 or more points, and only one game landed in the 14-20 range. In 2025, the distribution improved, with five games in the 14-20 range and only two at 35-plus, but the three-year average of 443.3 points allowed per season reflects a defense that has consistently been tested. A repeat of the 2025 turnover pace would be the upside scenario; a regression toward the 2023-2024 interception averages of 8 and 9 would push the outcome closer to the low end of what this unit can deliver.
How to draft him
The Panthers DST is ranked DST32 and #242 overall. There is no market ADP available, meaning this unit is not being drafted consistently enough across platforms to register a median pick. In practice, that makes them a late-add or streaming candidate rather than a draft-day target. At a draft value of -62.8, spending any pick on this unit ahead of the final rounds is difficult to justify against the replacement-level math. If a drafter is committed to a specific streaming schedule built around favorable matchups, the Panthers could fit that plan in the deepest rounds, but the projection and rank do not support an earlier commitment.
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Questions drafters ask
The projection is 83.0 points with a draft value of -62.8, placing them at DST32 and #242 overall in Tier 9. That puts them well below replacement level at the position, and there is no market ADP available, meaning the unit is not being consistently drafted. The numbers do not support spending a meaningful pick on them.
Yes, in a few categories. The 2025 season produced 15 interceptions, up from 8 in 2023 and 9 in 2024. Points allowed dropped to 380 in 2025 from 534 in 2024 and 416 in 2023. Sacks were 30 in 2025, consistent with the three-year average of 29.7. The improvement is real, but the projection of 83.0 points and a draft value of -62.8 reflect the full three-year picture.
Their bye falls in Week 5. That is an early absence, so any drafter who does roster a Panthers DST unit will need a streaming replacement ready in the first month of the season.
The 2025 interception total of 15 was the highest in the three-year window and well above the 10.7 average. Sustaining that turnover rate while keeping points allowed near the 2025 figure of 380 rather than the three-year average of 443.3 would represent the upside scenario. The 2024 season, with 534 points allowed and six games surrendering 35 or more, illustrates the downside.
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Beyond the rankings
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