#13 overall · CIN · 205.6 projected half-PPR pts · +76.8 Draft Value · Market ADP 15.5
Chase Brown — 2026 Fantasy Outlook
The case for drafting him
Chase Brown has back-to-back seasons of 229 and 232 rush attempts, 990 and 1,019 rushing yards, and double-digit receiving touchdowns combined across those two years. The receiving work is real: 65 targets and 54 receptions in 2024 grew to 88 targets and 69 receptions in 2025, with 437 receiving yards and 5 receiving touchdowns. That is a three-down profile, not a committee piece waiting to be displaced. His three-year averages confirm the trajectory: 168.3 rush attempts, 56 targets, and 729.3 rushing yards per season, numbers that are pulled down by a limited 2023 role and still land at a useful baseline. The two full seasons of featured work tell the cleaner story. RB9 with a +76.8 draft value above replacement level is the reward for a back who has earned every snap.
What the model projects
The projection is 205.6 half-PPR fantasy points, placing Brown #13 overall and at RB9 in Tier 3. His draft value sits at +76.8, meaning the projection runs 76.8 points above the replacement-level baseline at running back in a 12-team half-PPR format. The median simulated season lands at 217.1 points, a touch above the point estimate, which reflects a distribution that skews slightly toward the upside.
| Car | Rush yds | Rush TD | Tgt | Rec | Rec yds | Rec TD | Fum | Half-PPR | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2023 | 44 | 179 | — | 15 | 14 | 156 | 1 | 1 | 46.5 |
| 2024 | 229 | 990 | 7 | 65 | 54 | 360 | 4 | 2 | 226.0 |
| 2025 | 232 | 1019 | 6 | 88 | 69 | 437 | 5 | 2 | 246.1 |
| 3-yr avg | 168.3 | 729.3 | 4.3 | 56 | 45.7 | 317.7 | 3.3 | 1.7 | 173.2 |
The range of outcomes
The outcome band is wide, which is the honest reality for any featured running back. At the pessimistic end, the bottom 10 percent of simulated seasons finishes at 108.9 points. The 25th percentile is 160.4 points, still a functional season but well short of the projection. The median sits at 217.1 points. From there the upside opens up: the 75th percentile reaches 265.4 points and the top 10 percent of simulated seasons clears 298.6 points. The gap between the p10 and p90 outcomes spans nearly 190 points, so drafters should enter with clear eyes. Brown's floor is real, but so is the variance. His fumble history, two fumbles in each of the past two seasons, is a factor the numbers already reflect.
(bottom 10%)
(median)
(top 10%)
our projection
How to draft him
Brown's market ADP is 15.5, which works out to pick 2.03 in a 12-team snake draft, based on a median across two platforms. That means the decision arrives early in the second round. His bye is Week 6, which is worth noting for roster construction but is not a reason to avoid him. At RB9 and #13 overall in Tier 3, the rankings and the market are in close agreement on where Brown sits. Plan for the second round and have a contingency if he goes in the first.
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Questions drafters ask
Brown caught 69 of 88 targets for 437 receiving yards and 5 receiving touchdowns in 2025, his most productive receiving season on record.
The bottom 10 percent of simulated seasons finishes at 108.9 half-PPR points, and the 25th percentile lands at 160.4 points. A bad season is possible, and the band is wide enough that drafters should account for it.
His market ADP is 15.5, which translates to pick 2.03 in a 12-team draft. Plan to spend a second-round pick, and be prepared to move earlier if he is going in the first round at your table.
Brown logged 229 rush attempts in 2024 and 232 in 2025, with rushing yard totals of 990 and 1,019 respectively. Targets grew from 65 to 88 across those same two seasons, pointing to a stable and expanding role.
Practice it in a free mock draft →
Beyond the rankings
This page ranks the players. Nobody has ranked the people in your league.
Half your room drafts off a sheet like this one. The managers who cash every year aren't holding a better sheet; they have tendencies, and after enough seasons the tendencies are a book. Your league's own draft history is where it's written.
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Names invented. Most long-running leagues have a table like this.