#238 overall · IND · 190.3 projected half-PPR pts · -57.5 Draft Value
Daniel Jones — 2026 Fantasy Outlook
The case for drafting him
Daniel Jones is now in Indianapolis, and his 2025 season represents the clearest evidence yet that he can produce at a meaningful level when given a full workload. He threw for 3,101 yards and 19 touchdown passes, added 5 rushing touchdowns, and finished with a 261-of-384 completion line. That is a significant step up from his 2024 numbers of 2,070 passing yards and 8 passing touchdowns across 341 attempts. The three-year averages tell a more cautious story: 2,026.7 passing yards, 9.7 passing touchdowns, and 7 interceptions per season. But the 2025 campaign is the most recent data point, and it is the one that most resembles a starting quarterback operating with consistent opportunity. His rushing contribution has been real across all three seasons: 40, 67, and 45 rush attempts with a three-year average of 211.7 rush yards and 2.7 rushing touchdowns per year. That dual-threat floor gives him a scoring path beyond the passing game alone.
What the model projects
The projection is 190.3 half-PPR fantasy points. That puts Jones at QB24 and #232 overall, landing him in Tier 9. His draft value is -63.6, meaning the projection sits below replacement level at the quarterback position in a 12-team half-PPR format. The point estimate of 190.3 is notably lower than his 2025 actual production, reflecting the full weight of his three-season history rather than any single year in isolation.
| Att | Comp | Pass yds | Pass TD | INT | Car | Rush yds | Rush TD | Fum | Half-PPR | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2023 | 160 | 108 | 909 | 2 | 6 | 40 | 206 | 1 | 4 | 63.0 |
| 2024 | 341 | 216 | 2070 | 8 | 7 | 67 | 265 | 2 | 3 | 142.3 |
| 2025 | 384 | 261 | 3101 | 19 | 8 | 45 | 164 | 5 | 8 | 232.4 |
| 3-yr avg | 295 | 195 | 2026.7 | 9.7 | 7 | 50.7 | 211.7 | 2.7 | 5 | 150.2 |
The range of outcomes
The simulated season band is wide. The p10 outcome is 56.8 points, a near-total-loss season. The p25 sits at 110.5, still well below replacement level. The median simulated season lands at 164.2 points, short of the 190.3 point estimate, which signals the distribution is right-skewed: the upside scenarios pull the projection above the typical outcome. The p75 is 241.9 points and the p90 reaches 309.0, a number that would represent genuine QB1 production. That gap between the p10 and p90 (56.8 to 309.0) is among the widest variance profiles a drafter will encounter at the position. Jones is not a player who delivers a predictable season. His fumble history adds to that volatility: 8 fumbles in 2025, 3 lost, and a three-year average of 5 fumbles per season. The floor is real and the ceiling is real, and the distance between them is substantial.
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our projection
How to draft him
Jones does not have a market ADP available, meaning he is not being drafted consistently enough across platforms to register a median pick. In a 12-team half-PPR draft, he is a late-round or undrafted option at best. His -63.6 draft value and QB24 rank place him outside the range where most drafters will spend a meaningful pick. The practical use case is as a streaming option or a late-roster stash in deeper leagues, particularly in formats that reward rushing touchdowns. His bye is Week 13. If you are building a two-QB roster or need a handcuff at the position, Jones is the kind of player who can be added off the waiver wire rather than drafted. The 2025 upside is real, but the projection and the three-year context both say the cost of a pick is hard to justify when he is available for free.
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Questions drafters ask
His draft value is -63.6 and he ranks QB24 and #232 overall, placing him in Tier 9. The projection of 190.3 points sits below replacement level for the position in a 12-team half-PPR format. He has no market ADP, meaning he is not being consistently drafted. In most formats, he is a waiver-wire or streaming option rather than a pick investment.
In 2025 Jones completed 261 of 384 passes for 3,101 yards and 19 touchdowns, adding 5 rushing touchdowns on 45 attempts. That is his strongest single-season line across the three years on record. The p90 simulated outcome of 309.0 points reflects that ceiling. However, his three-year averages of 2,026.7 passing yards and 9.7 passing touchdowns per season show that 2025 was an outlier relative to his prior production.
Very. The simulated season band runs from 56.8 points at the p10 to 309.0 at the p90, with a median of 164.2. That is a spread of over 250 points between a bad season and a great one. His fumble history reinforces the variance: 8 fumbles in 2025, 3 lost, and a three-year average of 5 fumbles per season.
His bye is Week 13. On the rushing side, he has averaged 50.7 rush attempts, 211.7 rush yards, and 2.7 rushing touchdowns per season over the past three years. That contribution provides a scoring floor beyond the passing game, which is relevant in formats that award rushing touchdowns to quarterbacks.
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Beyond the rankings
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