#135 overall · SEA · 90.3 projected half-PPR pts · -25.0 Draft Value
Cooper Kupp — 2026 Fantasy Outlook
The case for drafting him
Cooper Kupp arrives in Seattle as a receiver with a three-year track record of volume. From 2023 through 2025 he averaged 88.3 targets, 57.7 receptions, 680 receiving yards, and 4.3 receiving touchdowns per season. The 2024 season showed he could still absorb a full target share: 100 targets, 67 catches, 710 yards, and 6 touchdowns. That kind of reception and touchdown floor is not nothing, and a drafter willing to wait deep into a draft for a receiver with that kind of usage history has a real argument for the pick.
What the model projects
The projection is 90.0 half-PPR fantasy points. That sits at WR63 and #171 overall, placing Kupp in Tier 9. His draft value is -37.7, meaning the projection lands below replacement level at the wide receiver position in a 12-team half-PPR format. These numbers reflect where the model lands; they are not a ceiling or a floor.
| Tgt | Rec | Rec yds | Rec TD | Car | Rush yds | Fum | Half-PPR | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2023 | 95 | 59 | 737 | 5 | 1 | -3 | — | 132.9 |
| 2024 | 100 | 67 | 710 | 6 | 2 | 10 | 1 | 141.5 |
| 2025 | 70 | 47 | 593 | 2 | — | — | 1 | 91.8 |
| 3-yr avg | 88.3 | 57.7 | 680 | 4.3 | 1 | 2.3 | 0.7 | 122.6 |
The range of outcomes
The simulated season band is wide. The 10th-percentile outcome is 19.1 points, a near-zero fantasy season. The 25th percentile reaches only 41.1 points. The median simulated season lands at 73.6 points, below the 90.0-point projection. The 75th percentile climbs to 109.7 points, and the 90th percentile reaches 160.7 points. That top-decile outcome represents a meaningful upside scenario, but the distribution is skewed heavily toward the downside: more than half of simulated seasons finish below the point estimate, and a quarter finish at 41.1 points or fewer. The variance here is among the highest a drafter will encounter at this position tier. Kupp's bye week falls in Week 11.
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our projection
How to draft him
Kupp does not have a market ADP available, meaning he is not being drafted consistently enough across platforms to produce one. In practice, that means he is likely going undrafted or nearly undrafted in most public leagues. At WR63 and #171 overall in Tier 9, he is a late-roster or waiver-wire consideration rather than a pick that costs meaningful draft capital. If a drafter wants the exposure to his 90th-percentile outcome at 160.7 points, the cost to acquire him is minimal. The risk is that the median simulated season at 73.6 points and the 10th-percentile at 19.1 points are both outcomes a drafter has to be willing to absorb.
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Questions drafters ask
He sits at WR63 and #171 overall in Tier 9 with a draft value of -37.7, which puts him below replacement level in a 12-team half-PPR format. The projection is 90.0 points, but the median simulated season is 73.6 points and the 10th-percentile outcome is just 19.1. He has no market ADP, so the cost is essentially nothing. The question is whether the 90th-percentile upside of 160.7 points is worth a late or undrafted roster spot.
Over the three seasons from 2023 through 2025, he averaged 88.3 targets per year. The 2024 season was his highest in that window at 100 targets, and 2025 was his lowest at 70. Receptions averaged 57.7 per season across the same span.
Very wide. The simulated season band runs from 19.1 points at the 10th percentile to 160.7 points at the 90th percentile, a spread of more than 140 points. The 25th percentile is 41.1 and the 75th is 109.7, so the interquartile range alone covers nearly 70 points. This is a high-variance projection.
There is no market ADP available for Kupp, which means he is not being drafted consistently enough across platforms to produce one. He is effectively an undrafted or near-undrafted player in most public 2026 leagues.
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Beyond the rankings
This page ranks the players. Nobody has ranked the people in your league.
Half your room drafts off a sheet like this one. The managers who cash every year aren't holding a better sheet; they have tendencies, and after enough seasons the tendencies are a book. Your league's own draft history is where it's written.
RotoAlpha reads it. Paste your past drafts, from any platform, and every manager in your league gets a profile: who reaches, who chases runs, who pays up for their own team. Then it sits with you on draft night with a plan that adapts pick by pick, knowing who is likely to reach next.
Names invented. Most long-running leagues have a table like this.