#284 overall · MIA · 44.4 projected half-PPR pts · -65.8 Draft Value
Ollie Gordon — 2026 Fantasy Outlook
The case for drafting him
Ollie Gordon is on the Miami roster, and that is the starting point for any case in his favor. His 2025 season produced 70 rush attempts, 199 rush yards, 7 receptions on 9 targets, 32 receiving yards, and 4 total touchdowns. Those numbers represent his entire three-year NFL footprint as well, meaning every carry and every catch he has logged at the professional level came in 2025. For a drafter working the late rounds or the waiver wire in the preseason, the question is simply whether a change in role or opportunity could unlock more volume. The raw touchdown production, 3 rushing and 1 receiving, shows he can find the end zone when given the ball.
What the model projects
The projection for Gordon is 35.3 half-PPR fantasy points this season. His draft value is -92.2, and he ranks RB78 at #344 overall, sitting in Tier 9. Those numbers place him well below replacement level at the running back position in a 12-team half-PPR format. The median simulated season lands at 19.0 points, which is the more telling figure for typical expectations.
| Car | Rush yds | Rush TD | Tgt | Rec | Rec yds | Rec TD | Half-PPR | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025 | 70 | 199 | 3 | 9 | 7 | 32 | 1 | 50.6 |
| 3-yr avg | 70 | 199 | 3 | 9 | 7 | 32 | 1 | 50.6 |
The range of outcomes
The outcome band is wide and skewed heavily toward the low end. The bottom 10 percent of simulated seasons produces 0.0 points, and the 25th percentile reaches only 5.9. The median sits at 19.0 points. From there the upside opens up: the 75th percentile is 50.8 points and the 90th percentile reaches 85.1. That shape, a floor near zero and a ceiling in the mid-80s, reflects a player whose fantasy relevance is almost entirely contingent on opportunity. Most simulated seasons end with minimal production; the minority that do not can reach a usable total.
(bottom 10%)
(median)
(top 10%)
our projection
How to draft him
Gordon does not have a market ADP across public 2026 draft platforms, which means he is not being selected consistently enough to register a median draft position. In a standard 12-team snake draft he is a post-draft roster addition or a late-round flier at best. His bye is Week 6. At RB78 and #344 overall, he belongs on a watch list rather than a draft list for most formats, with the Tier 9 designation confirming he projects as a deep depth piece. If you are building a deep roster and want a late-round dart with some touchdown upside, the band shows a non-zero ceiling, but the median outcome is a near-empty stat line.
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Questions drafters ask
Gordon carried the ball 70 times for 199 rush yards and 3 rushing touchdowns. He caught 7 of 9 targets for 32 receiving yards and added 1 receiving touchdown. That 2025 season is also his entire three-year NFL statistical record.
The 90th-percentile simulated outcome is 85.1 half-PPR points, meaning only the top 10 percent of projected seasons reach that level. The median is 19.0 points and the 25th percentile is just 5.9, so the ceiling is real but the most likely outcomes are well below it.
He ranks RB78 and #344 overall with a draft value of -92.2, placing him in Tier 9. A negative draft value means he projects below replacement level at running back in a 12-team half-PPR format. He has no market ADP, so he is not being consistently drafted in public leagues at all.
At RB78 and #344 overall with a -92.2 draft value and no registered ADP, he is a post-draft addition in most formats rather than a pick you spend on draft day. The band does show a 90th-percentile outcome of 85.1 points, but the median simulated season is 19.0 and the floor is 0.0.
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Beyond the rankings
This page ranks the players. Nobody has ranked the people in your league.
Half your room drafts off a sheet like this one. The managers who cash every year aren't holding a better sheet; they have tendencies, and after enough seasons the tendencies are a book. Your league's own draft history is where it's written.
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Names invented. Most long-running leagues have a table like this.