#8 overall · SF · 231.3 projected half-PPR pts · +103.4 Draft Value · Market ADP 5.2
Christian McCaffrey — 2026 Fantasy Outlook
The case for drafting him
The three-year averages tell the story plainly: 211 rush attempts, 77 targets, 61.3 receptions, 954.3 rushing yards, and 544.7 receiving yards per season. In 2023, the full-season version of McCaffrey posted 272 carries, 83 targets, 67 receptions, 1,459 rushing yards, 564 receiving yards, 14 rushing touchdowns, and 7 receiving touchdowns. In 2025, he returned to a full workload: 311 rush attempts, 129 targets, 102 receptions, 1,202 rushing yards, 924 receiving yards, 10 rushing touchdowns, and 7 receiving touchdowns. The dual-threat volume is real and it is sustained. A draftValue of +103.4 points above replacement level at the running back position is the number that anchors his case. He sits at RB6 and #8 overall, in Tier 2 of the rankings. The projection is 231.3 half-PPR points. That is the floor you are buying into before the upside band even enters the conversation.
What the model projects
The projection is 231.3 half-PPR fantasy points. The draftValue is +103.4, meaning the model places him 103.4 points above the replacement-level running back in a 12-team half-PPR format. He ranks RB6 at the position and #8 overall, sitting in Tier 2. His bye week is Week 8.
| Car | Rush yds | Rush TD | Tgt | Rec | Rec yds | Rec TD | Fum | Half-PPR | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2023 | 272 | 1459 | 14 | 83 | 67 | 564 | 7 | 3 | 357.8 |
| 2024 | 50 | 202 | — | 19 | 15 | 146 | — | 1 | 40.3 |
| 2025 | 311 | 1202 | 10 | 129 | 102 | 924 | 7 | 2 | 365.6 |
| 3-yr avg | 211 | 954.3 | 8 | 77 | 61.3 | 544.7 | 4.7 | 2 | 256.8 |
The range of outcomes
The simulated season band is wide, which reflects the variance that comes with a high-volume back. At the pessimistic end, the bottom 10 percent of simulated seasons land at or below 134.6 points. The 25th percentile is 186.1 points. The median simulated season is 242.8 points, slightly above the 231.3 point estimate. The 75th percentile reaches 291.1 points, and the top 10 percent of simulated seasons finish at or above 324.3 points. The gap between the p10 and p90 outcomes is nearly 190 points, a reminder that the 2024 season, in which he totaled just 50 rush attempts, 19 targets, 202 rushing yards, and 146 receiving yards, is a real data point inside that distribution. The upside, anchored by the 2023 and 2025 full-season lines, is equally real.
(bottom 10%)
(median)
(top 10%)
our projection
How to draft him
McCaffrey's market ADP is 5.2, drawn from two platforms, which translates to pick 1.05 in a 12-team snake draft. That means the market is pricing him as the fifth player off the table in the first round. His ranking is #8 overall and RB6. If you hold the first pick through the fifth pick in your draft, he is realistically in play. If you are picking later in the first round, the decision is made for you before you get there. Plan your first-round strategy around whether pick 1.05 is in your range, and build your contingency from there. His Week 8 bye is worth noting for lineup management purposes, but it does not change the calculus on when you have to spend a pick to get him.
Practice it in a free mock draft →
Questions drafters ask
In 2023 he logged 272 rush attempts, 83 targets, 67 receptions, 1,459 rushing yards, 564 receiving yards, 14 rushing touchdowns, and 7 receiving touchdowns. In 2025 he posted 311 rush attempts, 129 targets, 102 receptions, 1,202 rushing yards, 924 receiving yards, 10 rushing touchdowns, and 7 receiving touchdowns. The three-year per-season averages across 2023 through 2025 are 211 rush attempts, 77 targets, 61.3 receptions, 954.3 rushing yards, and 544.7 receiving yards.
The bottom 10 percent of simulated seasons finish at or below 134.6 half-PPR points. The 25th percentile is 186.1 points. The 2024 season, in which he totaled 50 rush attempts, 19 targets, 202 rushing yards, and 146 receiving yards, is part of the historical record that informs that lower band.
His market ADP is 5.2, sourced from two platforms, which works out to pick 1.05 in a 12-team snake draft. He is going fifth overall on average, so if your draft slot is sixth or later in the first round, the market will have taken him before your pick arrives.
The projection is 231.3 half-PPR points and his draftValue is +103.4, meaning he projects 103.4 points above the replacement-level running back in a 12-team half-PPR format. He ranks RB6 at the position and #8 overall in Tier 2.
Practice it in a free mock draft →
Beyond the rankings
This page ranks the players. Nobody has ranked the people in your league.
Half your room drafts off a sheet like this one. The managers who cash every year aren't holding a better sheet; they have tendencies, and after enough seasons the tendencies are a book. Your league's own draft history is where it's written.
RotoAlpha reads it. Paste your past drafts, from any platform, and every manager in your league gets a profile: who reaches, who chases runs, who pays up for their own team. Then it sits with you on draft night with a plan that adapts pick by pick, knowing who is likely to reach next.
Names invented. Most long-running leagues have a table like this.