#106 overall · TB · 116.9 projected half-PPR pts · -12.3 Draft Value · Market ADP 83.0
Chris Godwin — 2026 Fantasy Outlook
The case for drafting him
The 2023 season is the clearest argument for Godwin. He hauled in 83 receptions on 130 targets for 1,024 receiving yards that year, adding a rushing touchdown on 4 carries. That target volume, 130 in a single season, shows what a full workload looks like for him in Tampa Bay's offense. The three-year averages back up the ceiling: 81 targets, 55.3 receptions, 653.3 receiving yards, and 3 receiving touchdowns per season. When he is on the field and involved, the production is real.
What the model projects
The projection is 116.9 half-PPR fantasy points for 2026. That sits at #106 overall and WR45, placing Godwin in Tier 9. His draft value is -12.3, meaning the projection lands below replacement level at the wide receiver position in a 12-team half-PPR format. The median simulated season (p50) comes in at 112.4 points, close to the point estimate.
| Tgt | Rec | Rec yds | Rec TD | Car | Rush yds | Rush TD | Fum | Half-PPR | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2023 | 130 | 83 | 1024 | 2 | 4 | 38 | 1 | — | 165.7 |
| 2024 | 62 | 50 | 576 | 5 | 1 | 2 | — | 1 | 112.8 |
| 2025 | 51 | 33 | 360 | 2 | — | — | — | — | 64.5 |
| 3-yr avg | 81 | 55.3 | 653.3 | 3 | 1.7 | 13.3 | 0.3 | 0.3 | 114.1 |
The range of outcomes
The outcome band is wide. At the pessimistic end, 10% of simulated seasons finish at or below 43.1 points. The 25th percentile is 74.3 points. The median sits at 112.4. The 75th percentile reaches 147.5, and the top 10% of simulated seasons land at or above 190.3 points. That 190.3 ceiling is meaningful: it reflects the kind of season his 2023 target share suggests is possible. The gap between the p10 floor and the p90 ceiling, 43.1 to 190.3, is among the wider bands a drafter will encounter at this range, and it is the central tension in any decision to roster him. Recent seasons show the volatility in practice: 62 targets and 576 receiving yards in 2024, then 51 targets and 360 receiving yards in 2025, compared to 130 targets and 1,024 yards in 2023.
(bottom 10%)
(median)
(top 10%)
our projection
How to draft him
Market ADP has Godwin going at pick 83, which translates to round 7, pick 11 in a 12-team draft (median across 2 platforms). The model has him at #106 overall. At his ADP, a drafter is spending a mid-to-late-round pick on a player the projection places below replacement level, with a wide outcome band. The upside case rests entirely on the high end of that band materializing. If you want Godwin, round 7 is when the market says you need to act. Given the spread between his floor and ceiling, he fits best as a depth piece for a roster that can absorb a low-end outcome without being crippled. His bye is Week 10, worth noting for roster management in that stretch.
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Questions drafters ask
It has varied sharply. He saw 130 targets in 2023, 62 in 2024, and 51 in 2025. The three-year average is 81 targets per season, but the trend line over the last two years runs well below that figure.
The p90 outcome, meaning the top 10% of simulated seasons, is 190.3 half-PPR points. His 2023 season, 83 receptions, 1,024 yards, and 2 receiving touchdowns on 130 targets, is the historical reference point for what a high-end Godwin season looks like.
Market ADP puts him at pick 83, or round 7, pick 11 in a 12-team draft. That is the average price across 2 platforms. If you wait past that range, you risk missing him.
Below. His draft value is -12.3, which means the 116.9-point projection sits beneath the replacement-level baseline for wide receivers in a 12-team half-PPR format. He is ranked WR45 and #106 overall.
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Beyond the rankings
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