#215 overall · JAX · 62.5 projected half-PPR pts · -53.3 Draft Value
Brenton Strange — 2026 Fantasy Outlook
The case for drafting him
Brenton Strange has posted back-to-back seasons of genuine production growth in Jacksonville. After a minimal 2023 (9 targets, 35 yards, 1 touchdown), he stepped into a real role in 2024: 53 targets, 40 receptions, 411 yards, and 2 touchdowns. Then in 2025 he built on it again: 60 targets, 46 receptions, 540 yards, and 3 touchdowns. The three-year averages tell the same story of a player trending upward: 40.7 targets, 30.3 receptions, 328.7 yards, and 2 touchdowns per season. Each of those per-season averages is pulled down by the near-empty 2023 line, which means the recent baseline is meaningfully stronger than the aggregate suggests. For a drafter willing to wait at tight end, Strange represents a player whose usage has grown in each of the three seasons on record.
What the model projects
The projection is 83.4 half-PPR fantasy points. That places Strange at TE21 and #170 overall, landing in Tier 9. His draft value is -36.3, meaning the projection sits below replacement level at the tight end position in a 12-team half-PPR format. The median simulated season (p50) comes in at 90.1 points, a touch above the point estimate, which reflects a distribution that skews slightly toward the upside. The projection is what it is: a back-end tight end with a defined but limited ceiling at current usage levels.
| Tgt | Rec | Rec yds | Rec TD | Fum | Half-PPR | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2023 | 9 | 5 | 35 | 1 | — | 12.0 |
| 2024 | 53 | 40 | 411 | 2 | 1 | 71.1 |
| 2025 | 60 | 46 | 540 | 3 | — | 95.0 |
| 3-yr avg | 40.7 | 30.3 | 328.7 | 2 | 0.3 | 60.0 |
The range of outcomes
The outcome band is wide. At the low end, 10% of simulated seasons finish at or below 33.4 points (p10), a near-irrelevant fantasy season. The 25th percentile lands at 58.7 points (p25), still a thin return. The median sits at 90.1 points (p50). From there the upside opens up: the 75th percentile reaches 113.2 points (p25), and the top 10% of simulated seasons finish at or above 142.7 points (p90). That p90 figure is more than four times the p10, which signals real variance. Strange's 2025 line of 60 targets and 3 touchdowns is the kind of season that lives in the upper half of that band. The floor is genuinely low; the ceiling, while not elite, is a usable fantasy contributor.
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our projection
How to draft him
Strange carries a market ADP of 163.9, which works out to pick 14.08 in a 12-team draft, based on a median across two platforms. That is deep in the draft, well into the final rounds, where roster spots are being filled with upside plays and handcuffs. He sits at #170 overall and TE21 in the rankings. His bye is Week 7, worth noting if you are stacking multiple players on the same schedule. At this draft slot, Strange is a late-round flier at a position where consistent production is hard to find. If you are entering the draft without a tight end secured in the middle rounds, he is a name to keep in mind as the draft winds down.
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Questions drafters ask
It has grown each year: 9 targets in 2023, 53 in 2024, and 60 in 2025. The three-year average is 40.7 targets per season, but that figure is weighed down by the minimal 2023 role. The 2024-2025 baseline is the more relevant window.
The projection is 83.4 half-PPR fantasy points. He ranks TE21 and #170 overall in Tier 9. His draft value is -36.3, placing him below replacement level at tight end in a 12-team half-PPR format.
The 90th-percentile simulated outcome is 142.7 points, meaning 10% of simulated seasons finish at or above that total. The 75th percentile is 113.2 points. Those figures represent the upper range of what the outcome band shows for him.
His market ADP is 163.9, which translates to pick 14.08 in a 12-team draft. That median is drawn from two platforms. If you want him, you are spending a pick in the 14th round.
Practice it in a free mock draft →
Beyond the rankings
This page ranks the players. Nobody has ranked the people in your league.
Half your room drafts off a sheet like this one. The managers who cash every year aren't holding a better sheet; they have tendencies, and after enough seasons the tendencies are a book. Your league's own draft history is where it's written.
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Names invented. Most long-running leagues have a table like this.