#214 overall · HOU · 194.6 projected half-PPR pts · -53.2 Draft Value
C.J. Stroud — 2026 Fantasy Outlook
The case for drafting him
C.J. Stroud has logged three consecutive seasons as a starter in Houston, and the volume has been real. His three-year averages sit at 309.3 completions, 3,625.3 passing yards, and 20.7 passing touchdowns per season. He adds a rushing dimension that most pocket passers do not: 46.3 rush attempts and 203 rush yards per season on average, with a rushing touchdown in two of the three years. His best season, 2023, produced 4,108 passing yards, 23 passing touchdowns, and 167 rush yards on 39 carries. The floor argument is straightforward: he has started and produced at volume across three full seasons, and the rushing work gives him a scoring path beyond the pass game.
What the model projects
The projection is 210.3 half-PPR fantasy points. That places Stroud at QB22 and #186 overall, landing in Tier 9. His draft value is -43.6, meaning the projection sits below replacement level at the quarterback position in a 12-team half-PPR format. The point estimate of 210.3 sits above the band median of 188.8, so the distribution carries a modest upside skew. The three-year average of 8.3 interceptions per season is part of the historical record the projection draws from, as is the step-down in passing yards from 4,108 in 2023 to 3,727 in 2024 to 3,041 in 2025.
| Att | Comp | Pass yds | Pass TD | INT | Car | Rush yds | Rush TD | Fum | Half-PPR | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2023 | 499 | 319 | 4108 | 23 | 5 | 39 | 167 | 3 | 8 | 278.5 |
| 2024 | 532 | 336 | 3727 | 20 | 12 | 52 | 233 | — | 6 | 232.4 |
| 2025 | 423 | 273 | 3041 | 19 | 8 | 48 | 209 | 1 | 2 | 216.5 |
| 3-yr avg | 484.7 | 309.3 | 3625.3 | 20.7 | 8.3 | 46.3 | 203 | 1.3 | 5.3 | 247.8 |
The range of outcomes
The simulated season band is wide. At the 10th percentile, Stroud finishes at 70.1 points, a near-total collapse of fantasy value. The 25th percentile lands at 129.8, still well below replacement. The median simulated season is 188.8 points. The 75th percentile reaches 265.1, and the 90th percentile tops out at 330.7, a figure that would represent a meaningful fantasy contributor. The gap between the 10th and 90th percentile outcomes is 260.6 points, which is a substantial spread. Drafters are buying into a wide range of possibilities, not a locked-in floor.
(bottom 10%)
(median)
(top 10%)
our projection
How to draft him
The market is drafting Stroud at an average of pick 183.8, which works out to round 16, pick 4 in a 12-team snake draft. That is late-round territory, and in most 12-team leagues it falls near or beyond the end of the draft. His negative draft value of -43.6 reflects a projection below replacement level at quarterback, so the primary use case is as a late-round handcuff or a streaming option rather than a weekly starter. His bye is Week 8. If you carry him, plan around that gap. The wide outcome band means the upside at 330.7 points is real, but so is the 70.1-point floor.
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Questions drafters ask
The projection of 210.3 points and a draft value of -43.6 place him below replacement level at quarterback, ranked QB22 and #186 overall in Tier 9. The market is taking him at pick 183.8, round 16.04 in a 12-team draft. He is a late-round or end-of-draft option, not a player who projects to carry a starting lineup slot on his own.
Over three seasons (2023-2025), he averaged 309.3 completions, 3,625.3 passing yards, 20.7 passing touchdowns, 8.3 interceptions, 46.3 rush attempts, and 203 rush yards per season. His peak passing season was 2023 with 4,108 yards and 23 touchdowns; his 2025 line was 3,041 passing yards, 19 touchdowns, and 8 interceptions on 423 attempts.
The simulated season band runs from 70.1 points at the 10th percentile to 330.7 at the 90th percentile. The median simulated season is 188.8 points. That is a 260.6-point spread between the bad and great scenarios, which is a wide distribution for any position.
It adds a secondary scoring path. His three-year averages include 46.3 rush attempts and 203 rush yards per season, with rushing touchdowns in 2023 (3) and 2025 (1). That rushing volume is part of the historical record behind the 210.3-point projection, but the overall projection still sits below replacement level at quarterback.
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Beyond the rankings
This page ranks the players. Nobody has ranked the people in your league.
Half your room drafts off a sheet like this one. The managers who cash every year aren't holding a better sheet; they have tendencies, and after enough seasons the tendencies are a book. Your league's own draft history is where it's written.
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Names invented. Most long-running leagues have a table like this.