#172 overall · JAX · 72.4 projected half-PPR pts · -37.7 Draft Value
Bhayshul Tuten — 2026 Fantasy Outlook
The case for drafting him
Bhayshul Tuten's 2025 season is the entirety of his NFL statistical record: 83 rush attempts, 307 rushing yards, 10 receptions on 14 targets for 79 receiving yards, and 7 total touchdowns. That touchdown rate relative to his touch volume is the most compelling number on his sheet. Seven scores on 97 total touches is a rate that keeps a back relevant in fantasy even when the raw yardage is modest. The receiving work is limited but real, and the target share suggests he has a role in the passing game. For a drafter willing to bet on role expansion, the foundation is there.
What the model projects
The projection is 116.8 half-PPR fantasy points. That puts Tuten at RB31 and #108 overall, landing in Tier 9. His draft value is -12.7, meaning the projection sits below replacement level at the running back position in a 12-team half-PPR format. The median simulated season (p50) comes in at 119.9 points, close to the point estimate. These are the numbers as they stand.
| Car | Rush yds | Rush TD | Tgt | Rec | Rec yds | Rec TD | Fum | Half-PPR | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025 | 83 | 307 | 5 | 14 | 10 | 79 | 2 | 1 | 83.6 |
| 3-yr avg | 83 | 307 | 5 | 14 | 10 | 79 | 2 | 1 | 85.6 |
The range of outcomes
The outcome band on Tuten is wide. The bottom 10% of simulated seasons land at 36.7 points, a near-irrelevant fantasy season. The 25th percentile is 72.0 points, still a fringe contributor. The median sits at 119.9. From there the upside opens up: the 75th percentile is 164.8 points and the top 10% of simulated seasons reach 207.6. That spread from p10 to p90 covers roughly 171 points, which reflects genuine uncertainty about his role and volume. The floor is low enough to matter; the ceiling is high enough to be interesting.
(bottom 10%)
(median)
(top 10%)
our projection
How to draft him
The market is currently taking Tuten at pick 56.0 on average, which works out to the 5th round, 8th pick in a 12-team draft (5.08). That is well ahead of where the model ranks him at #108 overall. The model's number and the market's number are built differently, so the gap is not a verdict either way. What it does tell you is practical: if you want Tuten, the market is pricing him in Round 5. Plan accordingly, or wait and see if he slips. His bye is Week 7. With a draftValue of -12.7 and a wide outcome band, he fits best as a depth piece or handcuff target rather than a foundational pick.
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Questions drafters ask
In 2025 he scored 7 total touchdowns (5 rushing, 2 receiving) on 83 rush attempts and 14 targets. That is a high scoring rate for the volume he received, and it is the strongest argument in his favor as a fantasy asset.
The top 10% of simulated seasons project to 207.6 half-PPR points. The 75th percentile lands at 164.8. Those outcomes represent meaningful fantasy production, though the median is a much more modest 119.9 points.
Based on market ADP across two platforms, Tuten is going at pick 56.0 on average, which is Round 5, pick 8 in a 12-team draft. If you want him, that is currently when you need to spend a pick.
It is present but limited. In 2025 he drew 14 targets, caught 10 for 79 yards, and added 2 receiving touchdowns. The receptions and touchdowns contribute in half-PPR, but the target volume is not large enough to anchor his value on its own.
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Beyond the rankings
This page ranks the players. Nobody has ranked the people in your league.
Half your room drafts off a sheet like this one. The managers who cash every year aren't holding a better sheet; they have tendencies, and after enough seasons the tendencies are a book. Your league's own draft history is where it's written.
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Names invented. Most long-running leagues have a table like this.